Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Jong AZ to win: 52%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 69% · bookies 69% · ✓ 9 goals
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: Jong AZ favourites, but not overwhelmingly. The coach sees goals from two porous defences, the dressing room points to Helmond's five straight away defeats against a mid-table host, and the sceptic notes the head-to-head keeps Helmond live.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 2 think Jong AZ's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals, with Jong AZ's attack the sharper edge
Jong AZ score 2.36 per game and Helmond 1.45, yet both concede around 2 per match with 0% clean sheets each. Both teams scored in 82% of both sides' games, and Jong AZ average 3.17 away but only 1.40 at home, so their home output is the soft spot.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureHelmond's five-game away losing run makes the table gap feel real
Jong AZ sit 11th on 14 points from 11 games; Helmond are 19th on 9. Helmond have lost five straight away games, conceding 12 in those five, while Jong AZ have won just two of their last six overall. Equal rest of 7 days each levels the workload.
Jong AZ: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Jong AZ are favourites at 52%, with Helmond Sport on 25% and the draw on 23%. Jong AZ are 11th and Helmond Sport 19th in the Eerste Divisie. In their last five league games, Jong AZ won one and Helmond Sport none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Jong AZ win or draw
- 75%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Helmond Sport win or draw
- 48%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 87%
- 3+ goals
- 69%
- 4+ goals
- 48%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 67%
- No
- 33%
We expect about 2.1 goals from Jong AZ and 1.5 from Helmond Sport. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 2–2 (7%), 3–1 (6%), 2–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% | 23% | 25% | Stats preview | #580 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Jong AZ: last 6
DLWDLW · 17 scored, 13 conceded
| 16 Oct | at VVV Venlo | 4–4 | D |
| 9 Oct | vs Den Bosch | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs FC Volendam | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | at Jong PSV U21 | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sep | at Heracles | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Dordrecht | 6–3 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWWLL
Helmond Sport: last 6
LLDLLW · 7 scored, 12 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs NAC Breda | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | at FC OSS | 1–3 | L |
| 2 Oct | vs Heracles | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Sep | at MVV | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | at Den Bosch | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Jong PSV U21 | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LLLLL
Season stats
| Jong AZ | Helmond Sport | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.36 | Goals scored per game | 1.45 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.91 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 1.83 |
| 3.17 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 73% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| 82% | Both teams scored | 82% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 18% | Failed to score | 18% |
League matches only, 11 games each.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Roda | 12 | +4 | 22 | WWDLW |
| 6 | NAC Breda | 12 | +3 | 21 | DWWDW |
| 7 | FC Volendam | 12 | +9 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 8 | Jong AZ | 12 | +5 | 17 | WDLWD |
| 9 | Vitesse | 12 | -1 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 10 | MVV | 12 | -11 | 17 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Waalwijk | 12 | +4 | 16 | DDLDL |
| … | |||||
| 16 | De Graafschap | 12 | -11 | 12 | DLWDW |
| 17 | FC Eindhoven | 12 | -9 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 18 | Dordrecht | 12 | -15 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 19 | Helmond Sport | 12 | -6 | 9 | LLLDL |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 12 | -12 | 7 | LLLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Jong AZ won 2, Helmond Sport 4, 0 draws; 3.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2026 | Jong AZ | 2–0 | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| 17 Oct 2025 | Helmond Sport | 4–2 | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| 26 Jan 2025 | Helmond Sport | 2–1 | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| 18 Oct 2024 | Jong AZ | 2–3 | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| 11 Mar 2024 | Helmond Sport | 3–1 | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| 10 Nov 2023 | Jong AZ | 2–1 | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
Match context
- Rest days
- Jong AZ 7Helmond Sport 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Jong AZ 1 · Helmond Sport 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
