Vila Nova vs Juventude prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Vila Nova 36%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 67%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The analysis points to a balanced contest, with Juventude's defensive record and league position providing a slight edge. While Vila Nova shows attacking intent at home, the overall probabilities suggest a tight affair with a moderate chance of goals.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersVila Nova's high home scoring rate suggests an attacking start to the match.
Vila Nova has scored 1.94 goals per game at home. They have a 40% rate of both teams scoring against Juventude in this fixture.
Vila Nova: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureJuventude's strong league position and recent form give them an edge in this fixture.
Juventude sits 2nd with 64 points, while Vila Nova is 3rd with 62 points. Juventude has had 4 days rest compared to Vila Nova's 7 days.
Juventude: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongJuventude's defensive solidity suggests the market might be overestimating the goal count.
Juventude has maintained a 66% clean sheet rate this season. Vila Nova's last 6 games included 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Vila Nova are slight favourites at 36%, with Juventude on 34% and the draw on 30%. Vila Nova are 3rd and Juventude 2nd in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, Vila Nova won two and Juventude three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Vila Nova win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Juventude win or draw
- 64%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 60%
- 3+ goals
- 33%
- 4+ goals
- 15%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 41%
- No
- 59%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Vila Nova and 1.0 from Juventude. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (14%), 0–0 (13%), 0–1 (13%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% | 30% | 34% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1949 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Vila Nova: last 6
LDWDWW · 9 scored, 5 conceded
| 24 Oct | at São Bernardo | 2–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Novorizontino | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Nautico Recife | 2–0 | W |
| 7 Oct | vs Cuiaba | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Botafogo SP | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Sep | vs Londrina | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DDWWW
Juventude: last 6
WDDWWW · 14 scored, 4 conceded
| 26 Oct | vs Nautico Recife | 4–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Ceara | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs São Bernardo | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Oct | at Ponte Preta | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Oct | vs Operario-PR | 3–0 | W |
| 28 Sep | at America Mineiro | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DWWLW
Season stats
| Vila Nova | Juventude | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.43 | Goals scored per game | 1.29 |
| 1.03 | Goals conceded per game | 0.66 |
| 1.94 | Scored per game at home | 1.56 |
| 0.94 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 37% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 34% |
| 40% | Both teams scored | 26% |
| 40% | Clean sheets | 66% |
| 26% | Failed to score | 26% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 35 | +32 | 64 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Juventude | 35 | +22 | 64 | WDDWW |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 35 | +14 | 62 | LDWDW |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | +12 | 61 | DWDWD |
| 5 | Criciuma | 35 | +6 | 59 | LWWLW |
| 6 | CRB | 35 | +4 | 55 | WLDWL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Vila Nova 7Juventude 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Vila Nova 2 · Juventude 1
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série B average: 2.34 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
