Criciúma vs Ponte Preta prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Criciúma to win: 93%, about 9 in 10
Goals call3+ goals 73% · bookies 73%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings agree Criciúma are overwhelming favourites, with the table gap, Ponte Preta's five straight away defeats and the defensive numbers all pointing the same way. The one soft spot is the goals line: Criciúma's low-scoring profile suggests over 2.5 at 73% may be slightly generous.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersCriciúma's home solidity meets an away side that barely scores
Criciúma keep clean sheets in 46% of matches and concede just 0.86 per game, while Ponte Preta score only 0.47 per game away and have failed to score in 51% of matches.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureA gulf in stakes and momentum points one way
Criciúma sit 5th on 59 points from 35 games, chasing the ZONES at the top, while Ponte Preta are 20th with just 15 points and three wins all season. Ponte Preta have lost all of their last five away games, conceding 17, and arrive with only one game in 14 days against a fresher host.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look broadly right, but the goals line is the interesting one
A 93% home number is hard to argue with given Ponte Preta's five straight away defeats. But Criciúma's own matches go over 2.5 goals only 23% of the time and both teams score just 26%, so 73% for over 2.5 looks a touch high even allowing for Ponte Preta's leaky defence.
Criciúma: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Criciúma are clear favourites at 93%, with Ponte Preta on 2% and the draw on 5%. Criciúma are 5th and Ponte Preta 20th in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, Criciúma won three and Ponte Preta none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Criciúma win or draw
- 98%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 95%
- Ponte Preta win or draw
- 7%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 89%
- 3+ goals
- 73%
- 4+ goals
- 52%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 26%
- No
- 74%
We expect about 3.5 goals from Criciúma and 0.3 from Ponte Preta. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 3–0 (16%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 4–0 (14%), 2–0 (14%), 5–0 (10%), 1–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 93% | 5% | 2% | Stats preview | #1963 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Criciúma: last 6
LWWLWW · 8 scored, 3 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Sport Recife | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | at São Bernardo | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs America Mineiro | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Oct | at Ceara | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Oct | at Londrina | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Avai | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWLLW
Ponte Preta: last 6
DDLLLL · 4 scored, 14 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Fortaleza EC | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Oct | vs Atletico Goianiense | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Oct | at Novorizontino | 1–5 | L |
| 7 Oct | vs Juventude | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Cuiaba | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Sep | at Botafogo SP | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLL
Season stats
| Criciúma | Ponte Preta | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.03 | Goals scored per game | 0.60 |
| 0.86 | Goals conceded per game | 2.17 |
| 1.12 | Scored per game at home | 0.72 |
| 0.94 | Scored per game away | 0.47 |
| 23% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 34% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 46% | Clean sheets | 9% |
| 26% | Failed to score | 51% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Juventude | 35 | +22 | 64 | WDDWW |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 35 | +14 | 62 | LDWDW |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | +12 | 61 | DWDWD |
| 5 | Criciúma | 35 | +6 | 59 | LWWLW |
| 6 | CRB | 35 | +4 | 55 | WLDWL |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | +9 | 54 | WLDWW |
| 8 | Atletico Goianiense | 35 | +9 | 54 | LDDLW |
| … | |||||
| 17 | Avai | 35 | -12 | 37 | LDWWL |
| 18 | Londrina | 35 | -7 | 32 | LWDLL |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 35 | -31 | 23 | WWLLL |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 35 | -55 | 15 | DDLLL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Criciúma 6Ponte Preta 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Criciúma 2 · Ponte Preta 1
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série B average: 2.34 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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