Athletic vs Ceará prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Athletic to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 57%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
In short
Athletic are favourites at 47%, with Ceará on 26% and the draw on 27%. Athletic are 14th and Ceará 15th in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, Athletic won none and Ceará two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Athletic win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Ceará win or draw
- 53%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 69%
- 3+ goals
- 43%
- 4+ goals
- 22%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Athletic and 1.0 from Ceará. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (13%), 2–0 (9%), 0–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% | 27% | 26% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1913 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Athletic: last 6
LDDLLD · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Operario-PR | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Avai | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Londrina | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Oct | at Goias | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Oct | vs Sport Recife | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Fortaleza EC | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: DLDWL
Ceará: last 6
DLWWDW · 8 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Juventude | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Oct | at Botafogo SP | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Oct | vs Criciuma | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Avai | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Operario-PR | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Novorizontino | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LWDDL
Season stats
| Athletic | Ceará | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.14 | Goals scored per game | 1.09 |
| 1.14 | Goals conceded per game | 1.24 |
| 1.24 | Scored per game at home | 1.29 |
| 1.06 | Scored per game away | 0.88 |
| 40% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 53% |
| 26% | Clean sheets | 21% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 32% |
League matches only, 35 and 34 games.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Goias | 34 | -6 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 12 | Cuiaba | 35 | +4 | 47 | LLLDW |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 35 | +2 | 47 | WWWWL |
| 14 | Athletic | 35 | +0 | 44 | LDDLL |
| 15 | Ceará | 34 | -5 | 43 | DLWWD |
| 16 | Nautico Recife | 35 | -7 | 43 | LDLLD |
| 17 | Avai | 35 | -12 | 37 | LDWWL |
| 18 | Londrina | 35 | -7 | 32 | LWDLL |
Match context
- Travel for Ceará
- 3,826 km
- -2 h time zone
- Rest days
- Athletic 9Ceará 16
- Matches in the last 14 days: Athletic 1 · Ceará 0
- Weather at kick-off
- 29°C · wind 5 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série B average: 2.34 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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