Fortaleza vs Atlético Goianiense prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Fortaleza to win: 48%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 54% · bookies 54%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Fortaleza are favourites at 48%, with Atlético Goianiense on 24% and the draw on 28%. Fortaleza are 4th and Atlético Goianiense 8th in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, Fortaleza won two and Atlético Goianiense one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Fortaleza win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Atlético Goianiense win or draw
- 52%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 49%
- No
- 51%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Fortaleza and 1.0 from Atlético Goianiense. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% | 30% | 26% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1911 | |
| 2 | 48% | 28% | 24% | Prices moved | #2196 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Fortaleza: last 6
DWDWDD · 10 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Ponte Preta | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Oct | at Sport Recife | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs CRB | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Oct | at America Mineiro | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Nautico Recife | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Athletic Club | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: DDDDW
Atlético Goianiense: last 6
LDDLWW · 6 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Novorizontino | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Oct | at Ponte Preta | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Sport Recife | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Oct | at CRB | 1–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs America Mineiro | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Goias | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DLWLD
Season stats
| Fortaleza | Atlético Goianiense | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.23 | Goals scored per game | 1.20 |
| 0.89 | Goals conceded per game | 0.94 |
| 1.59 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 0.89 | Scored per game away | 0.88 |
| 37% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 37% |
| 46% | Both teams scored | 49% |
| 43% | Clean sheets | 34% |
| 23% | Failed to score | 26% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 35 | +32 | 64 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Juventude | 35 | +22 | 64 | WDDWW |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 35 | +14 | 62 | LDWDW |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 35 | +12 | 61 | DWDWD |
| 5 | Criciuma | 35 | +6 | 59 | LWWLW |
| 6 | CRB | 35 | +4 | 55 | WLDWL |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | +9 | 54 | WLDWW |
| 8 | Atlético Goianiense | 35 | +9 | 54 | LDDLW |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 35 | -1 | 51 | WLLLL |
| 10 | São Bernardo | 35 | +10 | 49 | WLDLW |
| 11 | Goias | 34 | -6 | 49 | DWWLL |
Match context
- Travel for Atlético Goianiense
- 1,855 km
- Rest days
- Fortaleza 8Atlético Goianiense 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Fortaleza 1 · Atlético Goianiense 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 30°C · wind 17 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série B average: 2.34 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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