Náutico vs Avaí prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Náutico to win: 48%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 56%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
The goals model's 44% for over 2.5 fits both sides' season scoring rates, though Náutico's poor recent run tempers confidence in the home side.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals, but Náutico's home edge keeps them ahead
Náutico concede 1.31 per game and Avaí 1.29, yet the model still gives the hosts 1.5 expected goals to 1.0. Both teams score in 48% of projections and 3+ goals land 44%. Avaí's away attack manages just 0.94 per game, which caps their ceiling.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides sit mid-lower table with little to play for but pride
Náutico are 16th on 43 points, Avaí 17th on 37, six points apart after 35 games. Náutico have lost four of their last six; Avaí have lost three of six. The hosts get 4 days rest to Avaí's 7, but Avaí travel roughly 2605 km to Recife.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe numbers look fair, though Náutico's form argues for trimming the home edge
Avaí away have lost four of five, so the away 25% is defensible. Over 2.5 at 44% matches the 40-43% season rates.
Avaí: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Náutico are favourites at 48%, with Avaí on 25% and the draw on 27%. Náutico are 16th and Avaí 17th in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, Náutico won none and Avaí two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Náutico win or draw
- 75%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Avaí win or draw
- 52%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 44%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Náutico and 1.0 from Avaí. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% | 26% | 25% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1950 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Náutico: last 6
LDLLDW · 4 scored, 10 conceded
| 26 Oct | at Juventude | 0–4 | L |
| 19 Oct | at Goias | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Vila Nova | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Oct | vs Novorizontino | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Fortaleza EC | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Sport Recife | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: LLWDW
Avaí: last 6
LDWWLL · 3 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Botafogo SP | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Athletic Club | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Cuiaba | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Oct | vs Londrina | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Ceara | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Criciuma | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLLL
Season stats
| Náutico | Avaí | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.11 | Goals scored per game | 0.94 |
| 1.31 | Goals conceded per game | 1.29 |
| 1.12 | Scored per game at home | 0.94 |
| 1.11 | Scored per game away | 0.94 |
| 40% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 43% | Both teams scored | 46% |
| 26% | Clean sheets | 26% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 37% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 35 | +2 | 47 | WWWWL |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 35 | +0 | 44 | LDDLL |
| 15 | Ceara | 34 | -5 | 43 | DLWWD |
| 16 | Náutico | 35 | -7 | 43 | LDLLD |
| 17 | Avaí | 35 | -12 | 37 | LDWWL |
| 18 | Londrina | 35 | -7 | 32 | LWDLL |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 35 | -31 | 23 | WWLLL |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 35 | -55 | 15 | DDLLL |
Match context
- Travel for Avaí
- 2,605 km
- Rest days
- Náutico 4Avaí 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Náutico 2 · Avaí 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 27°C · wind 11 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série B average: 2.34 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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