Novorizontino vs Operario-PR prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Novorizontino to win: 66%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 60%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
In short
Novorizontino are clear favourites at 66%, with Operario-PR on 15% and the draw on 19%. Novorizontino are 1st and Operario-PR 9th in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, Novorizontino won four and Operario-PR one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Novorizontino win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 81%
- Operario-PR win or draw
- 34%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 37%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 2.2 goals from Novorizontino and 0.9 from Operario-PR. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 3–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 66% | 19% | 15% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2058 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Novorizontino: last 6
WDWWWD · 13 scored, 3 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Atletico Goianiense | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Vila Nova | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Oct | vs Ponte Preta | 5–1 | W |
| 8 Oct | at Nautico Recife | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Oct | vs Goias | 3–0 | W |
| 25 Sep | vs São Bernardo | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWDDW
Operario-PR: last 6
WLLLLD · 4 scored, 10 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Athletic Club | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at America Mineiro | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Goias | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Oct | vs Botafogo SP | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Oct | at Juventude | 0–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Ceara | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: LLWDW
Season stats
| Novorizontino | Operario-PR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.77 | Goals scored per game | 1.29 |
| 0.86 | Goals conceded per game | 1.31 |
| 1.82 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 1.72 | Scored per game away | 1.24 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| 51% | Both teams scored | 51% |
| 37% | Clean sheets | 34% |
| 23% | Failed to score | 26% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 35 | +32 | 64 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Juventude | 35 | +22 | 64 | WDDWW |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 35 | +14 | 62 | LDWDW |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | +12 | 61 | DWDWD |
| … | |||||
| 6 | CRB | 35 | +4 | 55 | WLDWL |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | +9 | 54 | WLDWW |
| 8 | Atletico Goianiense | 35 | +9 | 54 | LDDLW |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 35 | -1 | 51 | WLLLL |
| 10 | São Bernardo | 35 | +10 | 49 | WLDLW |
| 11 | Goias | 34 | -6 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 12 | Cuiaba | 35 | +4 | 47 | LLLDW |
Match context
- Travel for Operario-PR
- 414 km
- Rest days
- Novorizontino 8Operario-PR 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Novorizontino 1 · Operario-PR 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 25°C · wind 4 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série B average: 2.34 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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