Cuiaba vs São Bernardo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Cuiaba to win: 57%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 54% · bookies 54%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Cuiaba are favourites at 57%, with São Bernardo on 18% and the draw on 25%. Cuiaba are 12th and São Bernardo 10th in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, Cuiaba won one and São Bernardo two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Cuiaba win or draw
- 82%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- São Bernardo win or draw
- 43%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 46%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 46%
- No
- 54%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Cuiaba and 0.8 from São Bernardo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% | 31% | 30% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2050 | |
| 2 | 57% | 25% | 18% | Prices moved | #2231 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Cuiaba: last 6
LLLDWL · 2 scored, 6 conceded
| 26 Oct | at America Mineiro | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Oct | at Londrina | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Avai | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Oct | at Vila Nova | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Ponte Preta | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | at CRB | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: LWWWD
São Bernardo: last 6
WLDLWD · 9 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Vila Nova | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Criciuma | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Juventude | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Oct | at Sport Recife | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Oct | vs CRB | 3–1 | W |
| 25 Sep | at Novorizontino | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: DLDWW
Season stats
| Cuiaba | São Bernardo | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.91 | Goals scored per game | 1.40 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded per game | 1.11 |
| 1.12 | Scored per game at home | 1.22 |
| 0.72 | Scored per game away | 1.59 |
| 23% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| 31% | Both teams scored | 60% |
| 40% | Clean sheets | 26% |
| 46% | Failed to score | 20% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | +9 | 54 | WLDWW |
| 8 | Atletico Goianiense | 35 | +9 | 54 | LDDLW |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 35 | -1 | 51 | WLLLL |
| 10 | São Bernardo | 35 | +10 | 49 | WLDLW |
| 11 | Goias | 34 | -6 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 12 | Cuiaba | 35 | +4 | 47 | LLLDW |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 35 | +2 | 47 | WWWWL |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 35 | +0 | 44 | LDDLL |
| 15 | Ceara | 34 | -5 | 43 | DLWWD |
Match context
- Rest days
- Cuiaba 5São Bernardo 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Cuiaba 2 · São Bernardo 1
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série B average: 2.34 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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