Botafogo-SP vs Sport Recife prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Botafogo-SP 37%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 55% · bookies 55%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three analyses converge on a tight contest where attacking output is expected. While Botafogo-SP's home form is noted, Sport Recife's higher scoring rate and strong BTTS metrics suggest a genuine chance of goals. The consensus points towards a closely fought match with a moderate probability of over 2.5 goals.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Sport Recife's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSport Recife's attacking metrics suggest a high-scoring affair, despite Botafogo-SP's strong home form.
Botafogo-SP scores 1.53 per game at home.
Sport Recife: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBotafogo-SP's recent form is impressive, but Sport Recife maintains a more stable position in the table.
Sport Recife is 7th with 54 points. Botafogo-SP is 13th with 47 points, having secured 4 wins in their last 6 fixtures.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market appears balanced, reflecting the competitive nature of the league and the attacking potential of both sides.
The published numbers list Botafogo-SP at 37% and Sport Recife at 34%. Sport Recife has a higher scoring rate of 1.34 per game, compared to 1.14.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Botafogo-SP are slight favourites at 37%, with Sport Recife on 34% and the draw on 29%. Botafogo-SP are 13th and Sport Recife 7th in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, Botafogo-SP won four and Sport Recife three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Botafogo-SP win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Sport Recife win or draw
- 63%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Botafogo-SP and 1.2 from Sport Recife. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%), 0–0 (8%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% | 28% | 32% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2037 | |
| 2 | 37% | 29% | 34% | Prices moved | #2161 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Botafogo-SP: last 6
WWWWLW · 8 scored, 2 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Avai | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at CRB | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Ceara | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Oct | at Operario-PR | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Vila Nova | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Sep | vs Ponte Preta | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWLL
Sport Recife: last 6
WLDWWL · 8 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Criciuma | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Oct | vs Fortaleza EC | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Atletico Goianiense | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Oct | vs São Bernardo | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Oct | at Athletic Club | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Nautico Recife | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: DWLLL
Season stats
| Botafogo-SP | Sport Recife | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.14 | Goals scored per game | 1.34 |
| 1.09 | Goals conceded per game | 1.09 |
| 1.53 | Scored per game at home | 1.67 |
| 0.78 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 40% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| 49% | Both teams scored | 66% |
| 26% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 31% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 35 games each.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | +12 | 61 | DWDWD |
| 5 | Criciuma | 35 | +6 | 59 | LWWLW |
| 6 | CRB | 35 | +4 | 55 | WLDWL |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | +9 | 54 | WLDWW |
| 8 | Atletico Goianiense | 35 | +9 | 54 | LDDLW |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 35 | -1 | 51 | WLLLL |
| 10 | São Bernardo | 35 | +10 | 49 | WLDLW |
| 11 | Goias | 34 | -6 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 12 | Cuiaba | 35 | +4 | 47 | LLLDW |
| 13 | Botafogo-SP | 35 | +2 | 47 | WWWWL |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 35 | +0 | 44 | LDDLL |
| 15 | Ceara | 34 | -5 | 43 | DLWWD |
| 16 | Nautico Recife | 35 | -7 | 43 | LDLLD |
Match context
- Travel for Sport Recife
- 2,013 km
- Rest days
- Botafogo-SP 7Sport Recife 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Botafogo-SP 2 · Sport Recife 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 24°C · wind 7 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série B average: 2.34 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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