América Mineiro vs Cuiaba prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Cuiaba to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 57% · bookies 57% · ✓ 1 goals
The Verdict
The Dressing Room's faith in América's two straight home wins sits oddly against five straight league defeats and a H2H record of no wins in six against Cuiaba, which The Sceptic leans on.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think América Mineiro's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make América Mineiro favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersCuiaba's 0.79 conceded per game edges a low-scoring contest.
América score just 0.76 at home while Cuiaba concede 0.79 per game with 41% clean sheets - the visitors' defence shapes this. Cuiaba away manage only 0.76 scored, and América concede 1.59. Both teams score in just 47% of matches, pointing to a tight, low-scoring game.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureAmérica's home fightback meets a Cuiaba side with little to push for.
Two straight home wins - 1-0 over Operario-PR plus a prior W - show fight, and 9 days of rest helps. But 20 points from 34 games and five league defeats on the spin tell the real story. Cuiaba, 12th on 47 points, travel with a 1-0 H2H win this year already banked.
América Mineiro: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket makes Cuiaba 47% away - fair, but over 2.5 at 43% looks a touch high.
The prices match the record: Cuiaba won 4 of the last 6 H2H including 1-0 this year, while América lost 5 of 6. Yet goals stats cut the other way - América failed to score 47% of games, Cuiaba 44%, and only 22% of América's matches hit 4+ goals. Under 2.5 leans slightly the other way.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Cuiaba are favourites at 47%, with América Mineiro on 26% and the draw on 27%. América Mineiro are 19th and Cuiaba 12th in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, América Mineiro won one and Cuiaba one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- América Mineiro win or draw
- 53%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Cuiaba win or draw
- 74%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 69%
- 3+ goals
- 43%
- 4+ goals
- 22%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 1.0 goals from América Mineiro and 1.4 from Cuiaba. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–2 (9%), 0–0 (9%), 1–2 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% | 27% | 47% | Stats preview | #1533 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
América Mineiro: last 6
WLLLLL · 1 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Operario-PR | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | at Criciuma | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Oct | vs Fortaleza EC | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Atletico Goianiense | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Sep | vs Juventude | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Sep | at Vila Nova | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLLLW
Cuiaba: last 6
LLDWLW · 5 scored, 5 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Londrina | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Avai | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Oct | at Vila Nova | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Ponte Preta | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | at CRB | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs Nautico Recife | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LDLDL
Season stats
| América Mineiro | Cuiaba | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.65 | Goals scored per game | 0.94 |
| 1.59 | Goals conceded per game | 0.79 |
| 0.76 | Scored per game at home | 1.12 |
| 0.53 | Scored per game away | 0.76 |
| 47% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 24% |
| 41% | Both teams scored | 32% |
| 15% | Clean sheets | 41% |
| 47% | Failed to score | 44% |
League matches only, 34 games each.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Operario-PR | 35 | -1 | 51 | WLLLL |
| 10 | São Bernardo | 35 | +10 | 49 | WLDLW |
| 11 | Goias | 34 | -6 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 12 | Cuiaba | 35 | +4 | 47 | LLLDW |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 35 | +2 | 47 | WWWWL |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 35 | +0 | 44 | LDDLL |
| 15 | Ceara | 34 | -5 | 43 | DLWWD |
| 16 | Nautico Recife | 35 | -7 | 43 | LDLLD |
| 17 | Avai | 35 | -12 | 37 | LDWWL |
| 18 | Londrina | 35 | -7 | 32 | LWDLL |
| 19 | América Mineiro | 35 | -31 | 23 | WWLLL |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 35 | -55 | 15 | DDLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: América Mineiro won 0, Cuiaba 4, 2 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | Cuiaba | 1–0 | América Mineiro | Serie B |
| 16 Nov 2025 | América Mineiro | 1–1 | Cuiaba | Serie B |
| 24 Jul 2025 | Cuiaba | 3–1 | América Mineiro | Serie B |
| 15 Sep 2023 | Cuiaba | 2–2 | América Mineiro | Serie A |
| 7 May 2023 | América Mineiro | 1–2 | Cuiaba | Serie A |
| 29 Sep 2022 | Cuiaba | 2–1 | América Mineiro | Serie A |
Match context
- Rest days
- América Mineiro 9Cuiaba 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: América Mineiro 1 · Cuiaba 1
- Referee
- Nascimento de Souza
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série B average: 2.33 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
