Sport Recife vs Criciúma prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Criciúma to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53% · ✗ 3 goals
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: Sport's home scoring and Criciuma's away struggles point to a home edge, while low-scoring Criciuma games argue against goals. The published numbers - home 40%, draw 28%, away 31%, over 2.5 at 45% - look broadly fair, with the sceptic's case for a slightly higher draw chance the main counterpoint.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Sport Recife's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSport's home scoring meets Criciuma's stingy defence - goals lean one way
Sport score 1.65 per game at home and both teams score in 65% of their matches, but they concede 1.09 per game.
Sport Recife: strongly underrated
High The Dressing Room
the table and pressureCriciuma's top-five push meets a Sport side chasing a home streak
Criciuma sit 5th on 59 points, eight clear of Sport's 51 after 34 games, and arrive on a four-match winning run in their last five. Sport have lost two of their last three but won four of their last five at home.
Sport Recife: strongly underrated
High The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongCriciuma's away record and low over rate make the home edge look thin
The market gives Sport 40% but Criciuma sit 5th with the better defence (0.82 conceded per game, 47% clean sheets) and won the 2026 meeting 1-0. Criciuma's matches go over 2.5 just 21% of the time, so 45% for over 2.5 looks high. I'd shade the draw up and the home win down.
Sport Recife: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Criciúma are slight favourites at 40%, with Sport Recife on 32% and the draw on 28%. Sport Recife are 8th and Criciúma 5th in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, Sport Recife won two and Criciúma four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sport Recife win or draw
- 60%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Criciúma win or draw
- 68%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Sport Recife and 1.4 from Criciúma. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (9%), 1–2 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sport Recife: last 6
LDWWLW · 8 scored, 9 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Fortaleza EC | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Atletico Goianiense | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Oct | vs São Bernardo | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Oct | at Athletic Club | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Nautico Recife | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Juventude | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWWWW
Criciúma: last 6
WWLWWL · 7 scored, 3 conceded
| 18 Oct | at São Bernardo | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs America Mineiro | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Oct | at Ceara | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Oct | at Londrina | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Avai | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | vs Operario-PR | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WLWLL
Season stats
| Sport Recife | Criciúma | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.32 | Goals scored per game | 1.03 |
| 1.09 | Goals conceded per game | 0.82 |
| 1.65 | Scored per game at home | 1.12 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.94 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 21% |
| 65% | Both teams scored | 32% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 47% |
| 15% | Failed to score | 26% |
League matches only, 34 games each.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Vila Nova | 35 | +14 | 62 | LDWDW |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | +18 | 61 | DDWWW |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | +12 | 61 | DWDWD |
| 5 | Criciúma | 35 | +6 | 59 | LWWLW |
| 6 | CRB | 35 | +4 | 55 | WLDWL |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | +9 | 54 | WLDWW |
| 8 | Atletico Goianiense | 35 | +9 | 54 | LDDLW |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 35 | -1 | 51 | WLLLL |
| 10 | São Bernardo | 35 | +10 | 49 | WLDLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Sport Recife won 1, Criciúma 2, 3 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2026 | Criciúma | 1–0 | Sport Recife | Serie B |
| 9 Sep 2023 | Sport Recife | 3–3 | Criciúma | Serie B |
| 25 May 2023 | Criciúma | 1–0 | Sport Recife | Serie B |
| 3 Aug 2022 | Sport Recife | 1–1 | Criciúma | Serie B |
| 23 Apr 2022 | Criciúma | 1–1 | Sport Recife | Serie B |
| 9 Nov 2019 | Sport Recife | 1–0 | Criciúma | Serie B |
Match context
- Rest days
- Sport Recife 7Criciúma 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sport Recife 2 · Criciúma 2
- Referee
- Felipe Fernandes de Lima
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
