Avaí vs Botafogo-SP prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Avaí to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 62% · bookies 62% · ✓ 2 goals
The Verdict
Nobody trusts the over on a 2.5 line the market prices at 38%, though the sceptic's 44% hints the low prices may be slightly off.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo low-scoring profiles point to a tight, under-leaning match.
Avaí score 1.00 per game at home and concede 1.26; Botafogo-SP manage just 0.71 away, under half their 1.53 home rate. Both fail to score in roughly a third of matches, clean sheets sit near a quarter each, and Avaí have two 0-0 or 1-0 results in their last three.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureAvaí's fight for points meets a Botafogo-SP side with little to lose.
Avaí sit 17th on 37 points with three losses in their last six and just three goals scored in five home games; the pressure is theirs. Botafogo-SP, 14th on 44 from 34, arrive on three straight wins with equal rest, so a cagey, tight match with draw potential is live.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away win price looks a touch generous; the goals line about right.
Botafogo's 2.7 goals per game head-to-head average sits above this 2.5 line, and 3+ goals in three of their last four league meetings. Their away run of W W D in the last three beats Avaí's D W L L D at home, so I'd shade the visitors up to 29-30% and nudge the over past the 38% baseline.
Avaí: slightly overrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Avaí are slight favourites at 41%, with Botafogo-SP on 29% and the draw on 30%. Avaí are 17th and Botafogo-SP 14th in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, Avaí won two and Botafogo-SP four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Avaí win or draw
- 71%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Botafogo-SP win or draw
- 59%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 64%
- 3+ goals
- 37%
- 4+ goals
- 18%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 44%
- No
- 56%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Avaí and 1.0 from Botafogo-SP. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%), 0–1 (11%), 2–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% | 30% | 29% | Stats preview | #786 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Avaí: last 6
DWWLLL · 4 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Athletic Club | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Cuiaba | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Oct | vs Londrina | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Ceara | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Criciuma | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Goias | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: DWLDL
Botafogo-SP: last 6
WWWLWD · 7 scored, 3 conceded
| 18 Oct | at CRB | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Ceara | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Oct | at Operario-PR | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Vila Nova | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Sep | vs Ponte Preta | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Athletic Club | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: WWDLL
Season stats
| Avaí | Botafogo-SP | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.97 | Goals scored per game | 1.12 |
| 1.26 | Goals conceded per game | 1.12 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.53 |
| 0.94 | Scored per game away | 0.71 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 41% |
| 47% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 26% | Clean sheets | 24% |
| 35% | Failed to score | 32% |
League matches only, 34 games each.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | São Bernardo | 35 | +10 | 49 | WLDLW |
| 11 | Goias | 34 | -6 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 12 | Cuiaba | 34 | +5 | 47 | LLDWL |
| 13 | Botafogo-SP | 35 | +2 | 47 | WWWWL |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 35 | +0 | 44 | LDDLL |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 34 | -3 | 43 | DLLDW |
| 16 | Ceara | 34 | -5 | 43 | DLWWD |
| 17 | Avaí | 35 | -12 | 37 | LDWWL |
| 18 | Londrina | 35 | -7 | 32 | LWDLL |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 34 | -32 | 20 | WLLLL |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 35 | -55 | 15 | DDLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Avaí won 3, Botafogo-SP 1, 2 draws; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jul 2026 | Botafogo-SP | 3–1 | Avaí | Serie B |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Botafogo-SP | 0–0 | Avaí | Serie B |
| 28 Jul 2025 | Avaí | 5–0 | Botafogo-SP | Serie B |
| 19 Nov 2024 | Botafogo-SP | 1–3 | Avaí | Serie B |
| 31 Jul 2024 | Avaí | 1–1 | Botafogo-SP | Serie B |
| 7 Oct 2023 | Botafogo-SP | 0–1 | Avaí | Serie B |
Match context
- Rest days
- Avaí 6Botafogo-SP 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Avaí 2 · Botafogo-SP 2
- Referee
- Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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