Atlético Goianiense vs Novorizontino prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Atlético Goianiense 37%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 51% · bookies 51% · ✓ 1 goals
The Verdict
All three land close to the published picture: a narrow home lean against a tight, well-matched game, with the sceptic's away case the main counterweight.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks a draw is underrated; The Sceptic thinks Novorizontino are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersHome defensive strength meets the league's best away attack.
Both sides concede under one a game, but the visitors' attack outweighs the hosts' 1.59 at home. Both teams scored rates (50% and 53%) back a goals game.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSecond versus sixth with promotion stakes - a cagey, tight game.
Novorizontino sit 2nd on 61 points, Atlético Goianiense 6th on 54 - a seven-point gap between sides in the thick of the ZONES race. Three draws in six for the hosts and ten all season point to caution. Both had two games in 14 days; the extra day of rest may matter little. A draw is live.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongNovorizontino's away form and 3-0 H2H win make 34% look short.
Form says sharper: 3-0 in this season's H2H, and 12 goals in their last five on the road.
Novorizontino: clearly underrated
More goalsMed Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Atlético Goianiense are slight favourites at 37%, with Novorizontino on 34% and the draw on 29%. Atlético Goianiense are 6th and Novorizontino 2nd in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, Atlético Goianiense won two and Novorizontino three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Atlético Goianiense win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Novorizontino win or draw
- 63%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Atlético Goianiense and 1.3 from Novorizontino. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% | 29% | 34% | Stats preview | #799 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Atlético Goianiense: last 6
DDLWWL · 6 scored, 6 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Ponte Preta | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Sport Recife | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Oct | at CRB | 1–3 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs America Mineiro | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Goias | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at São Bernardo | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: DWWWW
Novorizontino: last 6
DWWWDL · 13 scored, 5 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Vila Nova | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Oct | vs Ponte Preta | 5–1 | W |
| 8 Oct | at Nautico Recife | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Oct | vs Goias | 3–0 | W |
| 25 Sep | vs São Bernardo | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Sep | at Ceara | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: DWLWW
Season stats
| Atlético Goianiense | Novorizontino | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.24 | Goals scored per game | 1.79 |
| 0.94 | Goals conceded per game | 0.88 |
| 1.59 | Scored per game at home | 1.82 |
| 0.88 | Scored per game away | 1.76 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 53% |
| 35% | Clean sheets | 35% |
| 24% | Failed to score | 24% |
League matches only, 34 games each.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 35 | +32 | 64 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 35 | +14 | 62 | LDWDW |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | +18 | 61 | DDWWW |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | +12 | 61 | DWDWD |
| 5 | Criciuma | 35 | +6 | 59 | LWWLW |
| 6 | CRB | 35 | +4 | 55 | WLDWL |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | +9 | 54 | WLDWW |
| 8 | Atlético Goianiense | 35 | +9 | 54 | LDDLW |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 35 | -1 | 51 | WLLLL |
| 10 | São Bernardo | 35 | +10 | 49 | WLDLW |
| 11 | Goias | 34 | -6 | 49 | DWWLL |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Atlético Goianiense won 1, Novorizontino 1, 3 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2026 | Novorizontino | 3–0 | Atlético Goianiense | Serie B |
| 8 Sep 2025 | Novorizontino | 1–1 | Atlético Goianiense | Serie B |
| 4 May 2025 | Atlético Goianiense | 1–0 | Novorizontino | Serie B |
| 1 Nov 2023 | Atlético Goianiense | 2–2 | Novorizontino | Serie B |
| 7 Jul 2023 | Novorizontino | 2–2 | Atlético Goianiense | Serie B |
Match context
- Rest days
- Atlético Goianiense 7Novorizontino 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Atlético Goianiense 2 · Novorizontino 2
- Referee
- Yuri Elino Ferreira Da Cruz
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
