São Bernardo 13thLDLWD

3–2

Sat 24 OctUK time (GMT)

Full time

Vila Nova 1stDWDWW

São Bernardo vs Vila Nova prediction

Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works

KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model

Who wins?

Wide open: no clear favourite (Vila Nova 36%)

São Bernardo33%Bookies 33

Draw31%Bookies 31

Vila Nova36%Bookies 36

Goals call2 goals or fewer 59% · bookies 59% · ✗ 5 goals

The Verdict

All three readings land close to the published numbers: São Bernardo 33%, draw 31%, Vila Nova 36%. Vila Nova's league leadership and defensive record edge it, but their modest away scoring tempers conviction. The 41% over 2.5 line fits the evidence of two careful sides, with a slight lean under.

! Upset: we gave São Bernardo 33% Ledger record ↗

AI forecastStats & H2HLineups & info

What our AI analysts say

All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.

The Coach

styles in the numbers

Two modest attacks make goals unlikely - lean under the total

Vila Nova's over 2.5 rate is just 35%, so a tight, low-scoring shape points under the line.

✓ In line with bookmakers Fewer goals

The Dressing Room

the table and pressure

Top-of-table visitors have the stronger hand even on the road

Vila Nova sit 1st on 62 points with a W18 D8 L8 record; São Bernardo are 12th on 46 points. The leaders have won four of their last six in all competitions, while the hosts have lost three of six. Both had two games in 14 days, so fatigue is even.

✓ In line with bookmakers

The Sceptic

where the market may be wrong

The prices look fair, but Vila Nova's away record invites caution

Vila Nova won the only recorded meeting 2-1 this season, and São Bernardo's form reads L D L W D W. But the visitors' home/away split is stark: 1.94 scored at home versus 0.88 away, with 4 scored and 6 conceded in their last five on the road.

✓ In line with bookmakers

Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.

In short

Vila Nova are slight favourites at 36%, with São Bernardo on 33% and the draw on 31%. São Bernardo are 13th and Vila Nova 1st in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, São Bernardo won one and Vila Nova three.

More markets

Win or draw (double chance)

São Bernardo win or draw: 64%
Either team wins (no draw): 69%
Vila Nova win or draw: 67%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 67%
3+ goals: 41%
4+ goals: 20%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 47%
No: 53%

We expect about 1.1 goals from São Bernardo and 1.2 from Vila Nova. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 0–0 (10%), 1–2 (8%).

How these numbers are made

A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.

Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published	Home	Draw	Away	Reason	Record
1	23 Oct 20:37	33%	31%	36%	Stats preview	#794

Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).

Form

All competitions, newest first.

São Bernardo: last 6

LDLWDW · 7 scored, 6 conceded

18 Oct	vs Criciuma	0–1	L
11 Oct	at Juventude	2–2	D
6 Oct	at Sport Recife	1–2	L
2 Oct	vs CRB	3–1	W
25 Sep	at Novorizontino	0–0	D
19 Sep	vs Atletico Goianiense	1–0	W

Last 5 at home: LWWLD

Vila Nova: last 6

DWDWWW · 8 scored, 2 conceded

18 Oct	vs Novorizontino	2–2	D
11 Oct	at Nautico Recife	2–0	W
7 Oct	vs Cuiaba	0–0	D
3 Oct	at Botafogo SP	1–0	W
25 Sep	vs Londrina	2–0	W
18 Sep	vs America Mineiro	1–0	W

Last 5 away: WWDLD

Season stats

São Bernardo		Vila Nova
1.35	Goals scored per game	1.41
1.09	Goals conceded per game	0.97
1.12	Scored per game at home	1.94
1.59	Scored per game away	0.88
47%	Matches over 2.5 goals	35%
59%	Both teams scored	38%
26%	Clean sheets	41%
21%	Failed to score	26%

League matches only, 34 games each.

Brasileirão Série B table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	League form
1	Novorizontino	35	+32	64	WDWWW
2	Vila Nova	35	+14	62	LDWDW
3	Juventude	34	+18	61	DDWWW
4	Fortaleza EC	35	+12	61	DWDWD
5	Criciuma	35	+6	59	LWWLW
…
7	Sport Recife	35	+9	54	WLDWW
8	Atletico Goianiense	35	+9	54	LDDLW
9	Operario-PR	35	-1	51	WLLLL
10	São Bernardo	35	+10	49	WLDLW
11	Goias	34	-6	49	DWWLL
12	Cuiaba	34	+5	47	LLDWL
13	Botafogo SP	35	+2	47	WWWWL