Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Fortaleza to win: 79%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 56% · ✓ 4 goals
The Verdict
All three readings land on a comfortable Fortaleza win, clustered around the published 79% away. The Coach sees a one-sided defensive script, the Dressing Room a gulf in points and form, and the Sceptic questions only the goals line, leaning just under 2.5. Consensus: away win, moderate goals.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersFortaleza's defence should smother a side that rarely scores; one-sided, not open.
Ponte Preta concede 2.18 per game and fail to score in 53% of matches, keeping clean sheets in just 9%. Fortaleza concede 0.85 per game and keep clean sheets in 44%. With both teams scoring in only 37% of cases, this points to a one-sided scoreline rather than an open exchange.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe gulf in the table and Fortaleza's away run make this theirs to lose.
Fortaleza sit 4th on 60 points; Ponte Preta are 20th on 14. The hosts have one win in six and are D L W L L at home, while Fortaleza have won five straight away. Both sides had 7 days' rest with 2 games in 14 days, so the fixture load is even.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away win looks priced right, but the goals line looks a touch too high.
The 56% over line looks generous: head-to-head meetings average 2.0 goals, Fortaleza score only 0.82 per game away this season, and the sides' over 2.5 rates are just 41% and 35%. The 79% away price, though, is backed by a five-game away winning run.
Fortaleza: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Fortaleza are clear favourites at 79%, with Ponte Preta on 7% and the draw on 14%. Ponte Preta are 20th and Fortaleza 4th in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, Ponte Preta won none and Fortaleza two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Ponte Preta win or draw
- 21%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 86%
- Fortaleza win or draw
- 94%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 56%
- 4+ goals
- 34%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 37%
- No
- 63%
We expect about 0.5 goals from Ponte Preta and 2.4 from Fortaleza. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–2 (15%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 0–1 (13%), 0–3 (12%), 1–2 (8%), 0–4 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6% | 14% | 79% | Stats preview | #808 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Ponte Preta: last 6
DLLLLW · 3 scored, 12 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Atletico Goianiense | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Oct | at Novorizontino | 1–5 | L |
| 7 Oct | vs Juventude | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Cuiaba | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Sep | at Botafogo SP | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs CRB | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DLWLL
Fortaleza: last 6
WDWDDW · 10 scored, 6 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Sport Recife | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs CRB | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Oct | at America Mineiro | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Nautico Recife | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Athletic Club | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Londrina | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WWWWW
Season stats
| Ponte Preta | Fortaleza | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | Goals scored per game | 1.21 |
| 2.18 | Goals conceded per game | 0.85 |
| 0.65 | Scored per game at home | 1.59 |
| 0.47 | Scored per game away | 0.82 |
| 41% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 35% |
| 41% | Both teams scored | 44% |
| 9% | Clean sheets | 44% |
| 53% | Failed to score | 24% |
League matches only, 34 games each.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 35 | +32 | 64 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 35 | +14 | 62 | LDWDW |
| 3 | Juventude | 34 | +18 | 61 | DDWWW |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 35 | +12 | 61 | DWDWD |
| 5 | Criciuma | 35 | +6 | 59 | LWWLW |
| 6 | CRB | 35 | +4 | 55 | WLDWL |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 35 | +9 | 54 | WLDWW |
| … | |||||
| 17 | Avai | 35 | -12 | 37 | LDWWL |
| 18 | Londrina | 35 | -7 | 32 | LWDLL |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 34 | -32 | 20 | WLLLL |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 35 | -55 | 15 | DDLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Ponte Preta won 1, Fortaleza 1, 1 draw; 2.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2026 | Fortaleza | 2–0 | Ponte Preta | Serie B |
| 26 Oct 2018 | Fortaleza | 1–1 | Ponte Preta | Serie B |
| 8 Jul 2018 | Ponte Preta | 2–0 | Fortaleza | Serie B |
Match context
- Rest days
- Ponte Preta 7Fortaleza 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Ponte Preta 2 · Fortaleza 2
- Referee
- De Moraes Silva
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
