Juventude vs Náutico prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Juventude to win: 68%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 51% · bookies 51% · ✓ 4 goals
The Verdict
The analysis suggests Juventude is the clear favourite to win, supported by their league standing and home form. While the market leans towards a high-scoring game, the historical head-to-head record suggests a higher probability of a draw.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersJuventude's home attacking power should be the deciding factor in this fixture.
Juventude has scored 1.41 goals per game at home. Náutico has conceded 7 goals in their last 5 away fixtures.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureJuventude's strong league position and rest advantage should give them the edge.
Juventude sits 3rd with 61 points, while Náutico is 15th with 43 points. Juventude has 9 days rest compared to Náutico's 7 days.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may be underestimating the possibility of a tight, low-scoring affair.
In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, there have been 3 draws. The average goals per game in these encounters is 2.2.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Juventude are clear favourites at 68%, with Náutico on 12% and the draw on 20%. Juventude are 3rd and Náutico 15th in Brasileirão Série B. In their last five league games, Juventude won three and Náutico one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Juventude win or draw
- 88%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- Náutico win or draw
- 31%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 51%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 44%
- No
- 56%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Juventude and 0.7 from Náutico. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–0 (13%), 2–1 (9%), 1–1 (9%), 3–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Juventude: last 6
DDWWWL · 11 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Ceara | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs São Bernardo | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Oct | at Ponte Preta | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Oct | vs Operario-PR | 3–0 | W |
| 28 Sep | at America Mineiro | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Sport Recife | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: DWLDW
Náutico: last 6
DLLDWL · 4 scored, 9 conceded
| 19 Oct | at Goias | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Vila Nova | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Oct | vs Novorizontino | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Fortaleza EC | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Sport Recife | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Cuiaba | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 away: DDLLD
Season stats
| Juventude | Náutico | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.21 | Goals scored per game | 1.15 |
| 0.68 | Goals conceded per game | 1.24 |
| 1.41 | Scored per game at home | 1.12 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.18 |
| 32% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 26% | Both teams scored | 44% |
| 65% | Clean sheets | 26% |
| 26% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 34 games each.
Brasileirão Série B table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 35 | +32 | 64 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Juventude | 35 | +22 | 64 | WDDWW |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 35 | +14 | 62 | LDWDW |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | +12 | 61 | DWDWD |
| 5 | Criciuma | 35 | +6 | 59 | LWWLW |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 35 | +2 | 47 | WWWWL |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 35 | +0 | 44 | LDDLL |
| 15 | Ceara | 34 | -5 | 43 | DLWWD |
| 16 | Náutico | 35 | -7 | 43 | LDLLD |
| 17 | Avai | 35 | -12 | 37 | LDWWL |
| 18 | Londrina | 35 | -7 | 32 | LWDLL |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 35 | -31 | 23 | WWLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Juventude won 2, Náutico 1, 3 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2026 | Náutico | 0–0 | Juventude | Serie B |
| 29 Nov 2020 | Juventude | 1–0 | Náutico | Serie B |
| 22 Aug 2020 | Náutico | 3–3 | Juventude | Serie B |
| 22 Sep 2019 | Náutico | 2–1 | Juventude | Serie C |
| 15 Sep 2019 | Juventude | 2–1 | Náutico | Serie C |
| 24 Oct 2017 | Juventude | 0–0 | Náutico | Serie B |
Match context
- Travel for Náutico
- 1,001 km
- Rest days
- Juventude 9Náutico 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Juventude 1 · Náutico 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 33°C · wind 17 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Bruno Mota Correia
- Goals in this league
- Brasileirão Série B average: 2.33 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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