NEC vs UPDF prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
NEC to win: 52%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 64%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
In short
NEC are favourites at 52%, with UPDF on 20% and the draw on 28%. NEC are 3rd and UPDF 10th in the Uganda Premier League. In their last five league games, NEC won two and UPDF two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- NEC win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- UPDF win or draw
- 48%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 63%
- 3+ goals
- 36%
- 4+ goals
- 17%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 40%
- No
- 60%
We expect about 1.4 goals from NEC and 0.8 from UPDF. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (16%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 1–1 (12%), 0–0 (12%), 2–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% | 28% | 20% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2251 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
NEC: last 6
LWDWDW · 10 scored, 4 conceded
| 21 Oct | at BUL | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Oct | at Kigezi HomeBoyz | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Oct | vs Express | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs URA | 4–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Mbarara City | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Sep | vs Lugazi | 3–1 | W |
Last 3 at home: DWW
UPDF: last 6
LWWDLD · 4 scored, 5 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs BUL | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | at Express | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Sep | vs Maroons | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Sep | at Police | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Sep | at Entebbe UPPC | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Kataka | 0–0 | D |
Last 3 away: WDL
Season stats
| NEC | UPDF | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.71 | Goals scored per game | 0.67 |
| 0.57 | Goals conceded per game | 0.83 |
| 2.33 | Scored per game at home | 0.33 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 43% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 43% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 57% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 7 and 6 games.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 7 | +11 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 2 | SC Villa | 7 | +13 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 3 | NEC | 7 | +8 | 14 | LWDWD |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 7 | +5 | 14 | WDWDL |
| 5 | Blacks Power | 7 | -2 | 12 | WLLLW |
| 6 | Vipers | 6 | +11 | 11 | DWDWW |
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | +5 | 10 | WDWLL |
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | +0 | 10 | WWWDL |
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | +2 | 8 | WWDD |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | -1 | 8 | LWWDL |
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | -5 | 8 | DDLLW |
| 12 | Police | 7 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 13 | Express | 7 | -2 | 6 | DLDDL |
Match context
- Rest days
- NEC 13UPDF 15
- Matches in the last 14 days: NEC 1 · UPDF 0
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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