BUL vs SC Villa prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (BUL 37%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 52%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
In short
BUL are slight favourites at 37%, with SC Villa on 37% and the draw on 26%. BUL are 1st and SC Villa 2nd in the Uganda Premier League. In their last five league games, BUL won four and SC Villa four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- BUL win or draw
- 63%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- SC Villa win or draw
- 64%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 48%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 1.3 goals from BUL and 1.3 from SC Villa. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%), 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% | 26% | 37% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2249 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
BUL: last 6
WWDWWW · 14 scored, 4 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs NEC | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | at UPDF | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | at Lugazi | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Blacks Power | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | vs Ntugasaze | 4–1 | W |
| 3 Sep | at Kataka | 4–1 | W |
Last 4 at home: WWWW
SC Villa: last 6
LWLWDW · 13 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Lijabatho Premier League | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Oct | vs Mbarara City | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Lifofane Premier League | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Oct | at Police | 6–1 | W |
| 7 Oct | at Kataka | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Kigezi HomeBoyz | 3–0 | W |
Last 4 away: LWDW
Season stats
| BUL | SC Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.14 | Goals scored per game | 2.29 |
| 0.57 | Goals conceded per game | 0.43 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 2.67 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 43% | Clean sheets | 57% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Uganda Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 7 | +11 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 2 | SC Villa | 7 | +13 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 3 | NEC | 7 | +8 | 14 | LWDWD |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 7 | +5 | 14 | WDWDL |
| 5 | Blacks Power | 7 | -2 | 12 | WLLLW |
Match context
- Rest days
- BUL 13SC Villa 9
- Matches in the last 14 days: BUL 1 · SC Villa 2
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
