Santa Clara vs Benfica prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Benfica to win: 75%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 58% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
The 52% over line sits comfortably with Benfica's scoring and a tight Santa Clara defence, with the draw the main swing factor.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBenfica's away scoring meets the league's meanest defence, so goals should come mostly one way.
Santa Clara concede just 0.50 per game with a 62% clean-sheet rate and only 38% both-teams-scored, while Benfica average 3.00 scored but 3.75 of that firepower travels to 3.75 away. Benfica have failed to score 0% of the time, but 88% of their games go over 2.5.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSecond visits fourth with only one point between them, but the fixture load tilts hard toward the hosts.
Benfica sit 2nd on 19 points, Santa Clara 4th on 18 and still unbeaten (W5 D3 L0). Yet Benfica have played twice in 14 days, three days' rest, while Santa Clara have had eight days off. After that Porto defeat, Benfica's league gap is under real pressure here.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look about right; if anything Santa Clara's numbers are being underestimated.
Both-teams-scored at 41% seems high against a 62% clean-sheet home defence, and the H2H 2.8 goals per game supports the 52% over line roughly as priced.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Benfica are clear favourites at 75%, with Santa Clara on 9% and the draw on 16%. Santa Clara are 4th and Benfica 2nd in the Primeira Liga. In their last five league games, Santa Clara won three and Benfica four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Santa Clara win or draw
- 25%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 84%
- Benfica win or draw
- 91%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 44%
- No
- 56%
We expect about 0.7 goals from Santa Clara and 2.4 from Benfica. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–2 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 0–1 (11%), 0–3 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Santa Clara: last 6
LWDWWD · 10 scored, 5 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Mafra Taça de Portugal | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Casa Pia | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs SC Braga | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Arouca | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Rio Ave | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | at Alverca | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 at home: DWWD
Benfica: last 6
WWWLWW · 16 scored, 6 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Omonia Nicosia UEFA Europa League | 4–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Celtic UEFA Europa League | 4–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Vitória SC | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at FC Porto | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | at AC Milan UEFA Europa League | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs GIL Vicente | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WLWWW
Season stats
| Santa Clara | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 3.00 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded per game | 0.88 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game at home | 2.25 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 3.75 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 88% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 62% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 9 | +10 | 18 | LWDDW |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | +7 | 18 | LWDWW |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | +5 | 17 | WWDLD |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | +1 | 14 | LWWDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Santa Clara won 0, Benfica 5, 1 draw; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Feb 2026 | Santa Clara | 1–2 | Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 12 Sep 2025 | Benfica | 1–1 | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Santa Clara | 0–1 | Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 30 Oct 2024 | Benfica | 3–0 | Santa Clara | Taça da Liga |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Benfica | 4–1 | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| 27 May 2023 | Benfica | 3–0 | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
Match context
- Travel for Benfica
- 1,445 km
- -1 h time zone
- Rest days
- Santa Clara 8Benfica 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Santa Clara 1 · Benfica 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 19°C · wind 19 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Claudio Pereira
- Goals in this league
- Primeira Liga average: 2.74 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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