Estoril vs Moreirense prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Estoril to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 51% · bookies 51% · ✓ 4 goals
The Verdict
The three readings suggest a tight contest where Moreirense's superior league form and head-to-head history give them the edge. Despite Estoril's home advantage, the statistical weight leans towards a Moreirense victory or a draw.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Moreirense's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersEstoril's home attack is modest but Moreirense struggles defensively on the road.
Estoril scores 0.50 goals per game at home, while Moreirense concedes 1.88 goals per game away. Both teams have a 50% chance of failing to score.
Moreirense: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMoreirense enters the match with significantly more points and a better standing in the league.
Moreirense sits 6 places above Estoril in the table, having secured 8 points from 8 games. Estoril has accumulated only 2 points from 8 games.
Moreirense: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published probabilities slightly undervalue Moreirense given their strong recent head-to-head record.
In the last 6 head-to-head encounters, Moreirense won 3 times and there were 3 draws. Moreirense's season average for matches over 2.5 goals is 62%.
Moreirense: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Estoril are favourites at 55%, with Moreirense on 20% and the draw on 25%. Estoril are 18th and Moreirense 12th in the Primeira Liga. In their last five league games, Estoril won none and Moreirense one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Estoril win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Moreirense win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 51%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Estoril and 1.0 from Moreirense. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% | 27% | 43% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1131 | |
| 2 | 50% | 26% | 24% | Prices moved | #1315 | |
| 3 | 55% | 25% | 20% | Prices moved | #1385 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Estoril: last 6
DLLLDL · 4 scored, 8 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Salgueiros Taça de Portugal | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Academico Viseu | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Casa Pia | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sep | at SC Braga | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sep | vs Arouca | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | at Benfica | 1–2 | L |
Last 4 at home: LDLD
Moreirense: last 6
LLDWLL · 5 scored, 10 conceded
| 17 Oct | at AVS Taça de Portugal | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs GIL Vicente | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Vitória SC | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sep | vs Maritimo | 3–1 | W |
| 9 Sep | vs Benfica | 0–4 | L |
| 4 Sep | at FC Porto | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LDLWL
Season stats
| Estoril | Moreirense | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.88 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | +1 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | +0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | -1 | 11 | LLDWL |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | -5 | 11 | WLDWL |
| 11 | Estrela | 9 | -3 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 12 | Vitória SC | 9 | +0 | 8 | WLDLD |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| … | |||||
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | -9 | 7 | WLDLL |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | -12 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | -10 | 2 | LLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Estoril won 0, Moreirense 3, 3 draws; 3.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Apr 2026 | Moreirense | 1–0 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 7 Dec 2025 | Estoril | 3–3 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 11 May 2025 | Moreirense | 2–2 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 28 Dec 2024 | Estoril | 2–2 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| 18 May 2024 | Moreirense | 2–1 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Estoril | 1–3 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
Match context
- Rest days
- Estoril 7Moreirense 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Estoril 1 · Moreirense 1
- Referee
- Carlos Macedo
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
