Gil Vicente vs FC Porto prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Porto to win: 67%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 51% · bookies 51% · ✗ 1 goals
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the published numbers: Porto's perfect league record and 2.75 goals per game away justify their strong favouritism, while Gil Vicente's recent wins at Braga and Moreirense and a 1-0 win in this fixture in 2026 keep the sceptic cautious.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersPorto's away scoring rate points to goals, with Gil Vicente likely shut out
Porto keep clean sheets in 50% of matches, so a one-sided scoreline looks live.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureAn unbeaten leader against a mid-table host with fresher legs
Porto sit 1st with 24 points from 8 games, winning all eight, while Gil Vicente are 6th on 14 points. Gil Vicente have 5 days' rest to Porto's 4, but Porto played twice in 14 days. Gil Vicente's last six include wins at Braga and Moreirense, so they arrive with confidence.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 67% on Porto looks fair, but the goals line may be a touch high
Porto have lost three of their last six in all competitions, and Gil Vicente won this fixture 1-0 in 2026. Gil Vicente matches go over 2.5 goals only 25% of the time and both teams scored in just 38%. The 51% over rate leans on Porto's 62%, and their last two away league wins were high-scoring.
Porto: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
FC Porto are clear favourites at 67%, with Gil Vicente on 13% and the draw on 20%. Gil Vicente are 6th and FC Porto 1st in the Primeira Liga. In their last five league games, Gil Vicente won two and FC Porto five.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Gil Vicente win or draw
- 33%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- FC Porto win or draw
- 88%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 51%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 44%
- No
- 56%
We expect about 0.7 goals from Gil Vicente and 2.0 from FC Porto. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–2 (13%), 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 0–3 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12% | 20% | 67% | Stats preview | #795 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Gil Vicente: last 6
WWDLLD · 5 scored, 6 conceded
| 19 Oct | at SC Braga | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | at Moreirense | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Maritimo | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Benfica | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Academico Viseu | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | at Famalicao | 0–0 | D |
Last 4 at home: DLWW
FC Porto: last 6
LLWWWL · 11 scored, 9 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs PSV Eindhoven UEFA Champions League | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Oct | at Real Betis UEFA Champions League | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Maritimo | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Benfica | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Casa Pia | 4–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | vs Manchester City UEFA Champions League | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LWWWW
Season stats
| Gil Vicente | FC Porto | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 2.50 |
| 0.75 | Goals conceded per game | 0.50 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.25 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 2.75 |
| 25% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | +17 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | +11 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | +8 | 18 | WDWWD |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | +5 | 17 | WWDLD |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | +1 | 14 | WWWWL |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | +1 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | +0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | -1 | 11 | LLDWL |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | -3 | 10 | LLLDW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Gil Vicente won 2, FC Porto 3, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | Gil Vicente | 1–0 | FC Porto | Friendlies Clubs |
| 26 Jan 2026 | FC Porto | 3–0 | Gil Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Gil Vicente | 0–2 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Gil Vicente | 3–1 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| 10 Aug 2024 | FC Porto | 3–0 | Gil Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 25 Feb 2024 | Gil Vicente | 1–1 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
Match context
- Rest days
- Gil Vicente 5FC Porto 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Gil Vicente 1 · FC Porto 2
- Referee
- Luis Miguel Branco Godinho
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
