Alverca 8thWWWLD

0–1

Sat 24 OctUK time (GMT)

Full time

Arouca 5thWDLDW

Alverca vs Arouca prediction

Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works

KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model

Who wins?

Alverca to win: 45%, about 2 in 5

Alverca45%Bookies 45

Draw30%Bookies 30

Arouca25%Bookies 25

Goals call3+ goals 51% · bookies 51% · ✗ 1 goals

The Verdict

The three readings suggest a tight contest where Alverca's home attack is balanced by Arouca's strong away form and league position. The market reflects this balance, with both teams showing mixed form and a high likelihood of goals.

! Upset: we gave Arouca 26% Ledger record ↗

AI forecastStats & H2HLineups & info

What our AI analysts say

All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.

The Coach

styles in the numbers

Alverca's home scoring ability meets Arouca's strong away offensive output.

Alverca scores 1.25 per game at home while conceding 1.50 overall. Arouca is strong away, scoring 2.00 per game but has a low BTTS rate of 38%.

✓ In line with bookmakers

The Dressing Room

the table and pressure

Arouca holds a slight advantage in the standings and recent form.

Arouca sits 5th with 14 points from 8 games, ahead of Alverca in 8th with 11 points. Alverca has 6 days rest, while Arouca has 5 days rest.

✓ In line with bookmakers

The Sceptic

where the market may be wrong

The market reflects a balanced contest, despite differing recent form.

H2H suggests a 2.0 goals per game average, with Alverca failing to score in 12% of matches. Arouca has failed to score in 25% of their games.

✓ In line with bookmakers

Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.

In short

Alverca are favourites at 45%, with Arouca on 25% and the draw on 30%. Alverca are 8th and Arouca 5th in the Primeira Liga. In their last five league games, Alverca won three and Arouca two.

More markets

Win or draw (double chance)

Alverca win or draw: 74%
Either team wins (no draw): 70%
Arouca win or draw: 55%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 75%
3+ goals: 51%
4+ goals: 29%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 54%
No: 46%

We expect about 1.6 goals from Alverca and 1.1 from Arouca. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 0–1 (8%).

How these numbers are made

A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.

Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published	Home	Draw	Away	Reason	Record
1	23 Oct 18:02	45%	30%	26%	Stats preview	#738

Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).

Form

All competitions, newest first.

Alverca: last 6

LWWWLD · 10 scored, 7 conceded

18 Oct	at Tondela Taça de Portugal	0–2	L
12 Oct	at Famalicao	4–1	W
19 Sep	vs Rio Ave	1–0	W
12 Sep	at Nacional	3–1	W
5 Sep	vs SC Braga	1–2	L
29 Aug	vs Santa Clara	1–1	D

Last 4 at home: WLDD

Arouca: last 6

WWDLDW · 10 scored, 8 conceded

18 Oct	at CF Os Belenenses Taça de Portugal	4–3	W
11 Oct	vs Estrela	1–0	W
19 Sep	at Sporting CP	2–2	D
13 Sep	vs Santa Clara	1–2	L
7 Sep	at Estoril	0–0	D
29 Aug	vs Maritimo	2–1	W

Last 5 away: WDDLW

Season stats

Alverca		Arouca
1.62	Goals scored per game	1.38
1.50	Goals conceded per game	0.88
1.25	Scored per game at home	2.00
2.00	Scored per game away	0.75
62%	Matches over 2.5 goals	50%
75%	Both teams scored	38%
12%	Clean sheets	50%
12%	Failed to score	25%

League matches only, 8 games each.

Primeira Liga table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	League form
2	Benfica	8	+17	19	WLWWW
3	Sporting CP	8	+11	18	WDDWW
4	Santa Clara	8	+8	18	WDWWD
5	Arouca	9	+5	17	WWDLD
6	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14	WWWWL
7	GIL Vicente	9	+1	14	LWWDL
8	Alverca	9	+0	11	LWWWL
9	SC Braga	8	-1	11	LLDWL
10	Estrela	9	-3	10	LLLDW
11	Vitória SC	9	+0	8	WLDLD