Estrela vs Casa Pia prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Estrela to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 51% · bookies 51% · ✓ 2 goals
The Verdict
The collective analysis suggests Estrela has the edge, supported by their superior league position and attacking statistics. However, the high goal averages in the head-to-head history and the volatile nature of Estrela's home form suggest a match with significant scoring potential, regardless of the final outcome.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks Estrela are underrated; The Sceptic thinks Casa Pia are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersEstrela's high attacking output is likely to exploit Casa Pia's defensive vulnerabilities.
Estrela averages 1.75 goals scored per game but concedes 1.88. Casa Pia averages only 0.38 goals scored per game while conceding 2.12. Estrela scores 1.50 per game at home.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureEstrela enters this fixture with a significant advantage in league standing and recent form.
Estrela sits 10th with 10 points from 8 games, having secured 2 wins and 4 draws. Casa Pia is 17th with only 4 points from 8 games. Estrela has 7 days rest compared to Casa Pia's 6 days.
Estrela: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may be underestimating the goal potential given the historical head-to-head record.
The last six meetings between the two sides have averaged 3.5 goals per game. Both teams score in 50% of matches.
Casa Pia: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Estrela are favourites at 55%, with Casa Pia on 20% and the draw on 25%. Estrela are 10th and Casa Pia 17th in the Primeira Liga. In their last five league games, Estrela won one and Casa Pia one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Estrela win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Casa Pia win or draw
- 46%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Estrela and 0.9 from Casa Pia. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% | 25% | 20% | Stats preview | #716 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Estrela: last 6
WLLDWD · 9 scored, 10 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Fazendense Taça de Portugal | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Arouca | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Academico Viseu | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Sep | at Rio Ave | 3–3 | D |
| 10 Sep | vs SC Braga | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Famalicao | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 at home: LWDD
Casa Pia: last 6
WLWLDL · 4 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Alpendorada Taça de Portugal | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Santa Clara | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Estoril | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs FC Porto | 1–4 | L |
| 6 Sep | at Vitória SC | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Moreirense | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: WWDLL
Season stats
| Estrela | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.75 | Goals scored per game | 0.38 |
| 1.88 | Goals conceded per game | 2.12 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 0.25 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 25% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 75% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | +1 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | +0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | -1 | 11 | LLDWL |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | -3 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | +0 | 8 | WLDLD |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | -7 | 8 | LDWLL |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | -1 | 7 | LWDDD |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | -9 | 7 | WLDLL |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | -12 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | -8 | 2 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Estrela won 3, Casa Pia 3, 0 draws; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2026 | Estrela | 1–2 | Casa Pia | Friendlies Clubs |
| 20 Mar 2026 | Estrela | 4–0 | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Casa Pia | 3–5 | Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| 9 Feb 2025 | Casa Pia | 1–0 | Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Estrela | 0–1 | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| 8 Mar 2024 | Estrela | 3–1 | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
Match context
- Rest days
- Estrela 7Casa Pia 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Estrela 2 · Casa Pia 2
- Referee
- Bruno Pires Costa
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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