Vitória SC vs Maritimo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Vitória to win: 63%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 50% · bookies 50% · ✓ 5 goals
The Verdict
All three lean towards a Vitória SC home win, broadly in line with the published 59%, with the sceptic closest on the total. The coach sees a low-scoring profile given Vitória's blunt attack, while the sceptic notes Maritimo's 75% over-2.5 rate argues for goals. A narrow home win with modest goal expectation is the collective read.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks a draw is underrated; The Sceptic thinks Maritimo are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersMaritimo's leaky defence meets Vitória's blunt attack - low-scoring home win.
Vitória concede just 1.25 per game with 25% clean sheets, while Maritimo ship 1.75 per game and keep only 12% clean sheets. But Vitória score just 0.62 per game and 0.50 at home, failing to score in 50% of matches.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo struggling sides, but Vitória's home form and H2H dominance give them the edge.
Vitória sit 15th with 5 points from 8 (W1 D2 L5), Maritimo 11th with 8 points. Vitória's last six show one win, a cup victory at Recreativa de Lamelas. They've won five of the last six head-to-heads, including 1-0 at home in 2022. Both had 6 and 5 days' rest respectively.
Vitória: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market's 59% home price looks fair, but the under-2.5 lean may be too strong.
Published numbers give Vitória 59% and 1.8 expected goals against Maritimo's 0.8. Yet Maritimo's matches go over 2.5 goals 75% of the time and both teams score in 75%, versus the published 48% over and 46% BTTS. H2H averages just 1.5 goals per game though, so the low total has support.
Maritimo: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Vitória SC are clear favourites at 63%, with Maritimo on 15% and the draw on 22%. Vitória SC are 15th and Maritimo 11th in the Primeira Liga. Neither side has won any of their last five league games.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Vitória SC win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Maritimo win or draw
- 37%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Vitória SC and 0.8 from Maritimo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 3–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Vitória SC: last 6
WLDLDL · 3 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Recreativa de Lamelas Taça de Portugal | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Benfica | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Moreirense | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Academico Viseu | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Casa Pia | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | at SC Braga | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 at home: DDWL
Maritimo: last 6
WLDLLL · 6 scored, 12 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Alcochetense Taça de Portugal | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs FC Porto | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at GIL Vicente | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sep | at Moreirense | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Benfica | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Arouca | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WDLLW
Season stats
| Vitória SC | Maritimo | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.62 | Goals scored per game | 1.12 |
| 1.25 | Goals conceded per game | 1.75 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 25% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | +0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | -1 | 11 | LLDWL |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | -3 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | +0 | 8 | WLDLD |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | -7 | 8 | LDWLL |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | -1 | 7 | LWDDD |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | -9 | 7 | WLDLL |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | -12 | 7 | WLWLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Vitória SC won 5, Maritimo 0, 1 draw; 1.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr 2023 | Maritimo | 1–2 | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga |
| 13 Nov 2022 | Vitória SC | 1–0 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 13 Mar 2022 | Maritimo | 0–1 | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga |
| 22 Oct 2021 | Vitória SC | 2–1 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 16 May 2021 | Maritimo | 0–0 | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga |
| 31 Jan 2021 | Vitória SC | 1–0 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
Match context
- Rest days
- Vitória SC 6Maritimo 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Vitória SC 2 · Maritimo 2
- Referee
- Diogo Rosa
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
