Rio Ave vs Famalicao prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour forecast
Who wins?
Famalicao to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
We're a little less confident in Famalicao than the bookmakers (3 percentage points): The slight increase in the draw probability reflects the tight nature of the fixtures and Rio Ave's recent defensive stability. Why
The Verdict
Our numbers shifted slightly toward the home side and the draw, moving away from the market's strong away bias. The Sceptic's view was not fully followed, as the shift did not match the suggested four-point increase for Rio Ave.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Rio Ave's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Rio Ave favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFamalicao's historical dominance and stability should see them secure the victory.
Rio Ave has failed to score in five of their last six matches and is under pressure following a sharp decline. Famalicao is currently 6th in the standings and has been unbeaten in the last 11 league encounters against Rio Ave.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureFamalicao's European ambitions give them the edge over a struggling Rio Ave side.
Rio Ave is 15th in the Primeira Liga with 7 points, while Famalicao is 6th with 7 points. Famalicao is currently pushing for a European finish.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongFamalicao's superior form and historical dominance give them the edge in this matchup.
Famalicao is 6th in the table and aims for a European finish. Rio Ave is 15th and has lost six consecutive matches.
Rio Ave: slightly underrated
More goalsLow AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Rio Ave is facing intense pressure after six consecutive league defeats, while Famalicao is motivated by European qualification. The match pits a struggling home side against a historically dominant away opponent, suggesting a tight contest.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Rio Ave win or draw
- 56%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Famalicao win or draw
- 74%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 60%
- 3+ goals
- 33%
- 4+ goals
- 14%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 39%
- No
- 61%
We expect about 0.8 goals from Rio Ave and 1.2 from Famalicao. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (16%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 0–0 (13%), 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 0–2 (9%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 24% | 29% | 47% | 46% |
| AI analysts | 25% | 32% | 43% | 58% |
| Our forecast | 26% | 30% | 44% | – |
Verdict: Our final probabilities remain close to the market, reflecting the historical advantage held by Famalicao. However, the slight increase in the draw probability accounts for the tight nature of the fixtures and Rio Ave's recent defensive resilience.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% | 24% | 49% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1167 | |
| 2 | 25% | 29% | 46% | Prices moved | #1320 | |
| 3 | 26% | 30% | 44% | Full analysis | #1361 | |
| 4 | 26% | 30% | 44% | Official lineups | #1491 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Rio Ave: last 6
WWLDLL · 7 scored, 14 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Louletano Taça de Portugal | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Nacional | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Alverca | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Sep | vs Estrela | 3–3 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Santa Clara | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Sporting CP | 0–4 | L |
Last 4 at home: WDLL
Famalicao: last 6
LLWDDD · 8 scored, 8 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Paredes Taça de Portugal | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Oct | vs Alverca | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Nacional | 4–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Sporting CP | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Estrela | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs GIL Vicente | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: LWDLD
Season stats
| Rio Ave | Famalicao | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.25 |
| 2.12 | Goals conceded per game | 1.38 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game away | 1.75 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 25% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 62% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Estrela | 9 | -3 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 12 | Vitória SC | 9 | +0 | 8 | WLDLD |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | -1 | 7 | LWDDD |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | -9 | 7 | WLDLL |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | -12 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | -10 | 2 | LLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Rio Ave won 0, Famalicao 2, 4 draws; 1.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2026 | Rio Ave | 0–0 | Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Famalicao | 0–0 | Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| 10 Mar 2025 | Famalicao | 1–0 | Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| 4 Oct 2024 | Rio Ave | 1–1 | Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
| 16 Feb 2024 | Famalicao | 2–1 | Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| 16 Sep 2023 | Rio Ave | 1–1 | Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 32Vitor Hugo
Defenders
- 20João Tomé
- 5A. Ntoi
- 23F. Petrasso
- 17M. Vrousai
Midfielders
- 79M. Patricio
- 54G. Liavas
- 7Diogo Bezerra
- 90Diogo Nascimento
- 80S. Clemmensen
Forward
- 11J. Blesa
Substitutes (12)
- 30R. Galčík
- 3S. Garcia
- 39Gustavo Mancha
- 44T. Nikitscher
- 8Ryan Guilherme
- 19M. Sellouki
- 77D. Špikić
- 9Tamble Monteiro
- 99E. van der Gouw
- 70A. Wenck
- 2Jose Carlos Teixeira Lopes Reis Goncalves
- 60Caike
Goalkeeper
- 25L. Carević
Defenders
- 17Rodrigo Pinheiro
- 15Víctor Rofino
- 3L. Realpe
- 2Gustavo Garcia
Midfielders
- 6T. van de Looi
- 21Tamás Szücs
- 18R. Beney
- 14Mathias De Amorim
- 7Sorriso
Forward
- 70G. Koutsias
Substitutes (12)
- 10Pedro Santos
- 30V. Serafimović
- 4F. van Breemen
- 1I. Zlobin
- 8Marcos Peña
- 33P. Salas
- 19Paulo Moreira
- 24Mathis Jangeal
- 9U. Abubakar
- 22Gabriel
- 72Juvenal Augusto Gomes Correia
- 11Óscar Aranda
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
Key facts
- Famalicao is in 14th place with 7 points from eight matches, pushing for a European finish.[3]
- In the last 11 league encounters, Famalicao has remained unbeaten, recording four wins and seven draws.[3]
- Rio Ave has failed to score in five of its last six matches.[3]
- The league has seen a high scoring average of 2.74 goals per match this season.[3]
Still unclear
- Whether Cezary Miszta returns for Rio Ave
- Whether Rodrigo Pinheiro plays for Famalicao
Sources
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Rio Ave vs Famalicao - prediction, team news, lineups
Match context
- Rest days
- Rio Ave 8Famalicao 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Rio Ave 1 · Famalicao 2
- Referee
- Helder Carvalho
- Goals in this league
- Primeira Liga average: 2.74 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
