Moreirense vs Estrela prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Estrela to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 52% · bookies 52%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean slightly towards Estrela, in line with the published 39% away share, though the Sceptic trims it back. The Coach sees goal-scoring signals on both sides while the Sceptic notes recent low-scoring Estrela results, so the over 2.5 line at 48% sits around fair. A tight, competitive mid-table match is the overall read.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals, with Estrela the sharper away side.
Estrela average 2.00 goals per game away and have kept no clean sheets all season, while Moreirense concede 1.78 per game.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table neighbours with little separating them; home edge is fragile.
Moreirense are 10th on 11 points, Estrela 12th on 10, so one result flips the order. Both had a full week's rest.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away lean looks fair, but the under-2.5 case is underpriced.
Estrela have lost three of their last six and failed to score in two of them, yet get 39% away. Moreirense's 31% at home looks slightly generous given four losses in six. The 48% over line sits oddly against Estrela's recent 0-2, 2-1 and 0-1 scorelines.
Estrela: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Estrela are slight favourites at 40%, with Moreirense on 31% and the draw on 29%. Moreirense are 10th and Estrela 12th in the Primeira Liga. In their last five league games, Moreirense won two and Estrela one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Moreirense win or draw
- 61%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Estrela win or draw
- 69%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 26%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Moreirense and 1.4 from Estrela. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 1–2 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% | 22% | 46% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2085 | |
| 2 | 31% | 29% | 39% | Prices moved | #2173 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Moreirense: last 6
WLLDWL · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Estoril | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at AVS Taça de Portugal | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs GIL Vicente | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Vitória SC | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sep | vs Maritimo | 3–1 | W |
| 9 Sep | vs Benfica | 0–4 | L |
Last 4 at home: LWLD
Estrela: last 6
LWLLDW · 7 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Casa Pia | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Fazendense Taça de Portugal | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Arouca | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Academico Viseu | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Sep | at Rio Ave | 3–3 | D |
| 10 Sep | vs SC Braga | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WLDWD
Season stats
| Moreirense | Estrela | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.22 | Goals scored per game | 1.56 |
| 1.78 | Goals conceded per game | 1.89 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.20 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 56% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | +1 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | +0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | -2 | 11 | LLLDW |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | -5 | 11 | WLDWL |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | +3 | 10 | WLWDD |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | -3 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | +0 | 8 | WLDLD |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | -8 | 7 | WLLLL |
Match context
- Travel for Estrela
- 302 km
- Rest days
- Moreirense 6Estrela 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Moreirense 1 · Estrela 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 23°C · wind 7 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primeira Liga average: 2.74 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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