Braga vs Famalicao prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Braga to win: 59%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 54% · bookies 54%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
In short
Braga are favourites at 59%, with Famalicao on 17% and the draw on 24%. Braga are 9th and Famalicao 11th in the Primeira Liga. In their last five league games, Braga won one and Famalicao two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Braga win or draw
- 83%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Famalicao win or draw
- 41%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 46%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 45%
- No
- 55%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Braga and 0.8 from Famalicao. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% | 26% | 47% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1983 | |
| 2 | 59% | 24% | 17% | Prices moved | #2217 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Braga: last 6
LWLLLD · 4 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Nacional | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Oct | vs Gent UEFA Europa Conference League | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Oct | vs GIL Vicente | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | at FC Copenhagen UEFA Europa Conference League | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Sporting CP | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Santa Clara | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: WLLWW
Famalicao: last 6
WLLWDD · 12 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Rio Ave | 4–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Paredes Taça de Portugal | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Oct | vs Alverca | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Nacional | 4–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Sporting CP | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Estrela | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: WLWDL
Season stats
| Braga | Famalicao | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.56 |
| 1.22 | Goals conceded per game | 1.22 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 2.20 |
| 56% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| 56% | Both teams scored | 56% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 22% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | +1 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | +0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | Braga | 9 | -2 | 11 | LLLDW |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | -5 | 11 | WLDWL |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | +3 | 10 | WLWDD |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | -3 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | +0 | 8 | WLDLD |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
Match context
- Travel for Famalicao
- 17 km
- Rest days
- Braga 7Famalicao 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Braga 3 · Famalicao 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 13°C · wind 4 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- Ricardo Silva
- Famalicao, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Primeira Liga average: 2.74 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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