Maritimo vs Santa Clara prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Santa Clara to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 62% · bookies 62%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Santa Clara are slight favourites at 42%, with Maritimo on 27% and the draw on 31%. Maritimo are 14th and Santa Clara 4th in the Primeira Liga. In their last five league games, Maritimo won none and Santa Clara three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Maritimo win or draw
- 58%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 69%
- Santa Clara win or draw
- 72%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 65%
- 3+ goals
- 38%
- 4+ goals
- 18%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 44%
- No
- 56%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Maritimo and 1.2 from Santa Clara. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%), 1–0 (11%), 0–2 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16% | 21% | 63% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1937 | |
| 2 | 28% | 31% | 42% | Prices moved | #2201 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Maritimo: last 6
LWLDLL · 5 scored, 15 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Vitória SC | 0–5 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Alcochetense Taça de Portugal | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs FC Porto | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at GIL Vicente | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sep | at Moreirense | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Benfica | 0–3 | L |
Last 4 at home: LLDW
Santa Clara: last 6
LLWDWW · 10 scored, 6 conceded
| 26 Oct | vs Benfica | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Mafra Taça de Portugal | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Casa Pia | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs SC Braga | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Arouca | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Rio Ave | 4–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LWWDW
Season stats
| Maritimo | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.44 |
| 2.11 | Goals conceded per game | 0.67 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.60 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 78% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 44% |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 56% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 11% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 9 | +10 | 18 | LWDDW |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | +7 | 18 | LWDWW |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | +5 | 17 | WWDLD |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | +1 | 14 | LWWDL |
| … | |||||
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | +3 | 10 | WLWDD |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | -3 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | +0 | 8 | WLDLD |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | -8 | 7 | WLLLL |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | -12 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | -13 | 7 | LWLDL |
Match context
- Travel for Santa Clara
- 973 km
- +1 h time zone
- Rest days
- Maritimo 8Santa Clara 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Maritimo 1 · Santa Clara 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 20°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primeira Liga average: 2.74 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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