Casa Pia vs Sporting CP prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Sporting CP to win: 80%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land on a strong Sporting away win, close to the published 80%, with the sceptic slightly less convinced. On goals, the coach backs the over given Sporting's 2.50 away scoring rate, while the sceptic leans under, noting Casa Pia fail to score in 67% of matches, so the 61% over line sits in contested territory.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks Sporting CP are underrated; The Dressing Room thinks a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSporting's away scoring meets a home side that rarely scores
Casa Pia's home form is four straight defeats with 1 scored and 13 conceded. Both teams score in only 22% of Casa Pia's matches.
Sporting CP: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureA gap in points and form points one way
Sporting sit 3rd with 18 points from 9 games; Casa Pia are 16th with 7. Sporting also come off two Champions League fixtures in quick succession, which may temper the margin.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look broadly right, though the total may be a touch high
The 80% away number is backed by Sporting's away form of W W D W D and 2.33 goals per game, though they lost their last league match to Academico Viseu and drew two before that. Casa Pia's two recent wins came away, not at home.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Sporting CP are clear favourites at 80%, with Casa Pia on 7% and the draw on 13%. Casa Pia are 16th and Sporting CP 3rd in the Primeira Liga. In their last five league games, Casa Pia won two and Sporting CP two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Casa Pia win or draw
- 20%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 87%
- Sporting CP win or draw
- 93%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 61%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 41%
- No
- 59%
We expect about 0.6 goals from Casa Pia and 2.5 from Sporting CP. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–2 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 0–3 (12%), 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (8%), 0–4 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7% | 13% | 80% | Stats preview | #1876 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Casa Pia: last 6
WWLWLD · 6 scored, 6 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Estrela | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Alpendorada Taça de Portugal | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Santa Clara | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Estoril | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs FC Porto | 1–4 | L |
| 6 Sep | at Vitória SC | 0–0 | D |
Last 4 at home: LLLL
Sporting CP: last 6
LLWWDD · 11 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Academico Viseu | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Oct | vs Lask Linz UEFA Champions League | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Oct | at Lens UEFA Champions League | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | at SC Braga | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Arouca | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Famalicao | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: WWDWD
Season stats
| Casa Pia | Sporting CP | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | Goals scored per game | 2.33 |
| 1.89 | Goals conceded per game | 1.22 |
| 0.25 | Scored per game at home | 2.20 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 2.50 |
| 33% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 78% |
| 22% | Both teams scored | 78% |
| 22% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 67% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 9 | +10 | 18 | LWDDW |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | +7 | 18 | LWDWW |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | +5 | 17 | WWDLD |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | +0 | 8 | WLDLD |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | -8 | 7 | WLLLL |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | -12 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | -13 | 7 | LWLDL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | -10 | 2 | LLLLD |
Match context
- Travel for Sporting CP
- 70 km
- Rest days
- Casa Pia 6Sporting CP 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Casa Pia 2 · Sporting CP 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 7 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primeira Liga average: 2.74 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
