Benfica vs Alverca prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Benfica to win: 80%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 68% · bookies 68%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Benfica are clear favourites at 80%, with Alverca on 8% and the draw on 12%. Benfica are 2nd and Alverca 8th in the Primeira Liga. In their last five league games, Benfica won four and Alverca three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Benfica win or draw
- 92%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 88%
- Alverca win or draw
- 21%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 87%
- 3+ goals
- 68%
- 4+ goals
- 47%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 2.8 goals from Benfica and 0.8 from Alverca. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 3–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 3–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% | 21% | 24% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1806 | |
| 2 | 79% | 12% | 8% | Prices moved | #2184 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Benfica: last 6
WWWWLW · 15 scored, 6 conceded
| 26 Oct | at Santa Clara | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Oct | at Omonia Nicosia UEFA Europa League | 4–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Celtic UEFA Europa League | 4–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Vitória SC | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at FC Porto | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | at AC Milan UEFA Europa League | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
Alverca: last 6
LLWWWL · 9 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Arouca | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Tondela Taça de Portugal | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Oct | at Famalicao | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Rio Ave | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Nacional | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs SC Braga | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LWWLL
Season stats
| Benfica | Alverca | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.89 | Goals scored per game | 1.44 |
| 0.89 | Goals conceded per game | 1.44 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 3.40 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 89% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| 56% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 44% | Clean sheets | 11% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 22% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 9 | +10 | 18 | LWDDW |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | +7 | 18 | LWDWW |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | +5 | 17 | WWDLD |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | +1 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | +0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | -2 | 11 | LLLDW |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | -5 | 11 | WLDWL |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | +3 | 10 | WLWDD |
Match context
- Travel for Alverca
- 21 km
- Rest days
- Benfica 7Alverca 9
- Matches in the last 14 days: Benfica 2 · Alverca 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 19°C · wind 3 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primeira Liga average: 2.74 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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