Arouca vs Nacional prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Arouca to win: 51%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 51%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
In short
Arouca are favourites at 51%, with Nacional on 24% and the draw on 25%. Arouca are 5th and Nacional 15th in the Primeira Liga. In their last five league games, Arouca won two and Nacional one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Arouca win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Nacional win or draw
- 49%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 51%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Arouca and 1.1 from Nacional. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% | 24% | 24% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1936 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Arouca: last 6
WWWDLD · 9 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Alverca | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at CF Os Belenenses Taça de Portugal | 4–3 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Estrela | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Sporting CP | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Santa Clara | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sep | at Estoril | 0–0 | D |
Last 4 at home: WLWW
Nacional: last 6
WLLLLL · 4 scored, 13 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs SC Braga | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Sanjoanense Taça de Portugal | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Rio Ave | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Famalicao | 0–4 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Alverca | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Sporting CP | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLD
Season stats
| Arouca | Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Goals scored per game | 1.11 |
| 0.78 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.20 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| 33% | Both teams scored | 44% |
| 56% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 9 | +10 | 18 | LWDDW |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | +7 | 18 | LWDWW |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | +5 | 17 | WWDLD |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | +1 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | +0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| … | |||||
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | -3 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | +0 | 8 | WLDLD |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | -8 | 7 | WLLLL |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | -12 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | -13 | 7 | LWLDL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | -10 | 2 | LLLLD |
Match context
- Travel for Nacional
- 1,199 km
- Rest days
- Arouca 7Nacional 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Arouca 2 · Nacional 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 23°C · wind 7 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primeira Liga average: 2.74 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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