Gil Vicente vs Vitória SC prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Vitória 35%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 59% · bookies 59%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
In short
Vitória SC are slight favourites at 35%, with Gil Vicente on 34% and the draw on 31%. Gil Vicente are 7th and Vitória SC 13th in the Primeira Liga. In their last five league games, Gil Vicente won two and Vitória SC one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Gil Vicente win or draw
- 65%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 69%
- Vitória SC win or draw
- 65%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 67%
- 3+ goals
- 41%
- 4+ goals
- 20%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Gil Vicente and 1.2 from Vitória SC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (11%), 0–0 (10%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% | 31% | 37% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1984 | |
| 2 | 35% | 31% | 35% | Prices moved | #2218 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Gil Vicente: last 6
LWWDLL · 5 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs FC Porto | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Oct | at SC Braga | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | at Moreirense | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Maritimo | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Benfica | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Academico Viseu | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDLWW
Vitória SC: last 6
WWLDLD · 8 scored, 5 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Maritimo | 5–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Recreativa de Lamelas Taça de Portugal | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Benfica | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Moreirense | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Academico Viseu | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Casa Pia | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: WLLLL
Season stats
| Gil Vicente | Vitória SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.89 | Goals scored per game | 1.11 |
| 0.78 | Goals conceded per game | 1.11 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.40 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 22% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 33% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 44% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 44% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | +7 | 18 | LWDWW |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | +5 | 17 | WWDLD |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | +2 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 9 | +1 | 14 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | +0 | 11 | LWWWL |
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | -2 | 11 | LLLDW |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | -5 | 11 | WLDWL |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | +3 | 10 | WLWDD |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | -3 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | +0 | 8 | WLDLD |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | -10 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | -8 | 7 | WLLLL |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | -12 | 7 | WLWLD |
Match context
- Travel for Vitória SC
- 28 km
- Rest days
- Gil Vicente 9Vitória SC 10
- Matches in the last 14 days: Gil Vicente 1 · Vitória SC 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 5 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primeira Liga average: 2.74 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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