FC Porto vs Estoril prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Porto to win: 78%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 64% · bookies 64%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three analyses converge on a strong FC Porto victory. The statistical disparity in league position and form, combined with high scoring expectations, makes a decisive home win highly likely.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think FC Porto's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersFC Porto's dominant home attack is expected to overwhelm Estoril.
Estoril struggles away, scoring just 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.67 goals per game.
Porto: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe gulf in league standing and points accumulation suggests a decisive victory for the hosts.
FC Porto is 1st in the table with 27 points from 9 games. Estoril sits 18th with only 2 points from 9 games.
Porto: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market is heavily weighted towards Porto, but the attacking stats suggest a high-scoring affair.
FC Porto has an expected goals rate of 2.6, while Estoril's is 0.7. The published probability for over 2.5 goals is 64%. Porto is favoured at 78%.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
FC Porto are clear favourites at 78%, with Estoril on 7% and the draw on 15%. FC Porto are 1st and Estoril 18th in the Primeira Liga. In their last five league games, FC Porto won five and Estoril none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- FC Porto win or draw
- 93%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 85%
- Estoril win or draw
- 22%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 64%
- 4+ goals
- 42%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 2.6 goals from FC Porto and 0.7 from Estoril. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 3–0 (11%), 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 3–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 69% | 20% | 11% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1919 | |
| 2 | 78% | 15% | 7% | Prices moved | #2137 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
FC Porto: last 6
WLLWWW · 12 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | at GIL Vicente | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs PSV Eindhoven UEFA Champions League | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Oct | at Real Betis UEFA Champions League | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Maritimo | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Benfica | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Casa Pia | 4–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWLWW
Estoril: last 6
LDLLLD · 4 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Moreirense | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Salgueiros Taça de Portugal | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Academico Viseu | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Casa Pia | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sep | at SC Braga | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sep | vs Arouca | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: DLLLL
Season stats
| FC Porto | Estoril | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.33 | Goals scored per game | 0.56 |
| 0.44 | Goals conceded per game | 1.67 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game at home | 0.60 |
| 2.40 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 56% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| 44% | Both teams scored | 56% |
| 56% | Clean sheets | 11% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 44% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | +17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | +18 | 22 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 9 | +10 | 18 | LWDDW |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | +7 | 18 | LWDWW |
| … | |||||
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | -8 | 7 | WLLLL |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | -12 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | -13 | 7 | LWLDL |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | -10 | 2 | LLLLD |
Match context
- Travel for Estoril
- 279 km
- Rest days
- FC Porto 7Estoril 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: FC Porto 2 · Estoril 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 3 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Primeira Liga average: 2.74 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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