Sunderland vs Leeds United prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Leeds 37%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 55% · bookies 57%
Bookmakers agree with us.
The Verdict
Our final numbers stay close to the bookmakers', with a one-point trim to the draw and a small rise in the goals line rather than a big shift. The Sceptic's 2-point move from away to home was not followed in full, because Leeds' form, rest advantage and the table gap still outweigh the home side's lineup positives despite their attacking doubts.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Sunderland's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Sunderland favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsLeeds United's structured attack is better suited to exploit Sunderland's defensive frailties.
Sunderland is missing key defenders like Danso and Ballard, forcing tactical changes in their 4-2-3-1 setup. Leeds United will deploy a 3-4-2-1 formation, led by Calvert-Lewin, against a struggling home defense.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureIn-form Leeds with a full week's rest should outwork a tired, confidence-hit bottom side at the Stadium of Light.
Leeds are seventh with 10 points and one defeat, unlucky not to beat Manchester United last time.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongLeeds' front-line doubts at 50/50 give Sunderland's home price more backing than the market admits.
Leeds lead the last five head-to-heads 2-1-2. Sunderland also face a shorter recovery after Thursday's Europa League trip.
Sunderland: slightly underrated
Low AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Sunderland sit bottom on 4 points and come into this on a short turnaround after a Thursday Europa League trip to Lech Poznan. Leeds are 8th with 10 points and only one league defeat. Sunderland's defensive absences and Leeds' own attacking doubts leave the away side slight favourites, close to the market.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sunderland win or draw
- 63%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Leeds United win or draw
- 67%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 44%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Sunderland and 1.3 from Leeds United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (10%), 0–0 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 33% | 31% | 37% | 43% |
| Goals model | 24% | 28% | 47% | 44% |
| AI analysts | 28% | 28% | 44% | 48% |
| Our forecast | 33% | 30% | 37% | 45% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because Leeds' stronger form, single league defeat and full week's rest roughly balance Sunderland's home advantage and Leeds' 50/50 attacking doubts.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sunderland: last 6
DLWLLW · 7 scored, 11 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Lech Poznan UEFA Europa League | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Bournemouth | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | at Torreense UEFA Europa League | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Brighton | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Manchester City | 3–5 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs AZ Alkmaar UEFA Europa League | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWLWW
Leeds United: last 6
DLDWLD · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Manchester United | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Arsenal | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Crystal Palace | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Sep | vs Newcastle | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Sep | at Chelsea League Cup | 3–6 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Brighton | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LLDWW
Season stats
| Sunderland | Leeds United | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.86 | Goals scored per game | 1.29 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 0.86 |
| 0.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 29% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| 43% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 43% | Failed to score | 14% |
| 2.00 | Yellow cards per game | 1.86 |
League matches only, 7 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Sunderland | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | +5 | 11 | DLDWD |
| 7 | Newcastle | 8 | -2 | 11 | WLLWL |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 | WWDWL |
| 9 | Leeds United | 7 | +3 | 10 | DLDWD |
| 10 | Hull City | 8 | +1 | 10 | DLDLD |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLDWD |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | -4 | 10 | DLWLW |
| … | |||||
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | -10 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | -4 | 6 | DLLLW |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | -9 | 6 | LLWWL |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | -8 | 4 | LLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Sunderland won 1, Leeds United 2, 3 draws; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | Sunderland | 0–1 | Leeds United | Premier League - Summer Series |
| 3 Mar 2026 | Leeds United | 0–1 | Sunderland | Premier League |
| 28 Dec 2025 | Sunderland | 1–1 | Leeds United | Premier League |
| 17 Feb 2025 | Leeds United | 2–1 | Sunderland | Championship |
| 4 Oct 2024 | Sunderland | 2–2 | Leeds United | Championship |
| 9 Apr 2024 | Leeds United | 0–0 | Sunderland | Championship |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 22R. Roefs
Defenders
- 32T. Hume
- 20N. Mukiele
- 13L. O'Nien
- 17Reinildo
Midfielders
- 34G. Xhaka
- 27N. Sadiki
- 10N. Angulo
- 11C. Rigg
- 28E. Le Fée
Forward
- 9B. Brobbey
Substitutes (9)
- 31M. Ellborg
- 19H. Diarra
- 15O. Alderete
- 29Jules Ahoka
- 6D. Methalie
- 50J. Angulo
- 7C. Talbi
- 39M. Fofana
- 57Timur Tuterov
Goalkeeper
- 1J. Trafford
Defenders
- 24J. Justin
- 15J. Bijol
- 5T. Muharemović
Midfielders
- 2J. Bogle
- 4E. Ampadu
- 22A. Tanaka
- 3G. Gudmundsson
- 10H. Wilson
- 11B. Aaronson
Forward
- 9D. Calvert-Lewinwas doubtful
Substitutes (9)
- 16M. Zetterer
- 26M. Bard
- 18A. Stach
- 50Alfie Cresswell
- 8S. Longstaff
- 44I. Gruev
- 14L. Nmecha
- 19N. Okafor
- 23J. Bahoya
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.K. DansoSuspended
- OutD. BallardMuscle
- OutR. MundleKnee
Show 2 more
- DoubtW. IsidorInjury
- DoubtT. MeunierMuscle
- OutM. JosephKnee
- OutJ. RodonMuscle
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Sunderland are 20th with 4 points from 7 league games, with one home win and two home defeats this season.[4]
- Leeds are 8th with 10 points from 7 games and have lost only one league match; they are unbeaten at home.[4]
- Sunderland drew 1-1 at Lech Poznan in the Europa League on Thursday, giving them a shorter recovery than Leeds.[1][5]
- Sunderland have lost five of their seven league games, including their last two home fixtures.[1][4]
- Farke expects a motivated Sunderland side and warns against complacency.[4]
Still unclear
- Whether Brobbey starts for Sunderland
- Whether Calvert-Lewin (bruised foot) plays for Leeds
- Stach and Okafor fitness
- Whether Ballard is out or only a doubt
Sources
- starsportsbet.co.uk – STAR FOOTBALL PREVIEW Sun: Sunderland v Leeds - Star Sports (2026-10-25)
- thefalse9.com – Sunderland vs Leeds Team News: Calvert-Lewin, Okafor and Stach Doubts - The False 9 (2026-10-25)
- onefootball.com – Five changes: Régis Le Bris's predicted Sunderland XI and bench to face Leeds United - OneFootball (2026-10-25)
- leedsunited.com – Farke's assessment of 'handful' Sunderland star and the trap Leeds must avoid - Leeds United | Official Website (2026-10-25)
- bbc.co.uk – Positives for Le Bris despite Sunderland's wastefulness (2026-10-22)
- bbc.co.uk – Prem panel backs Struijk red card even though FA overturned suspension (2026-10-21)
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- Stadium of Light, Sunderland
- 49,000 seats · grass
- Travel for Leeds United
- 123 km
- Rest days
- Sunderland 2Leeds United 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sunderland 3 · Leeds United 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 31 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Stuart Attwell
- 6.5 yellow cards per game and 0.25 penalties per game over 4 games — above the Premier League average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- R. Le Bris
- Sunderland, since Jul 2024
- D. Farke
- Leeds United, since Jul 2023
- Goals in this league
- Premier League average: 2.84 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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