Arsenal vs Everton prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Arsenal to win: 68%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 51% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers moved the home win probability up by 1 point and the over 2.5 probability up by 4 points compared to the market. The Dressing Room's view that Arsenal's superior quality would secure the win was not fully followed, as the model accounted for the tactical risks of rotation and key absences.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Arsenal's chances are better than the bookmakers say. The Sceptic thinks Everton are underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsArsenal's depth covers Saka's absence against an Everton side missing Branthwaite (reported out, not confirmed by the club).
Arsenal are without Saka (a doubt) (6-8 weeks) and Saliba; Madueke, Eze and Gyökeres start, with Konsa and White in defence. Everton's XI omits the doubtful Branthwaite, with Röhl and Johnson surprise starters and Barry up front. Key duel: Rice/Merino against Garner and Dewsbury-Hall in midfield.
Arsenal: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✓ Right The Dressing Room
mood and pressureArsenal's superior form and home advantage should secure the win against a struggling Everton side.
Arsenal sits second in the league with a goal difference of +6, while Everton is in eighth place with +1. Arsenal has faced tactical rotation due to Saka's injury, but their attack remains potent.
Arsenal: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh✓ Right The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongArsenal's quality should secure the win, but the absence of key players makes it far from certain.
Arsenal is second in the Premier League but faces rotation due to Saka's long-term injury. Everton is a firm underdog away at the champions. Arsenal's recent form includes a 2-2 Champions League draw at Bayern Munich.
Everton: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Arsenal hosts Everton with key players like Bukayo Saka (a doubt) and William Saliba unavailable. Arsenal has a strong home record, while Everton is struggling for form away from home. The match presents a clash between Arsenal's attacking depth and Everton's defensive solidity.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Arsenal win or draw
- 89%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- Everton win or draw
- 32%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 2.1 goals from Arsenal and 0.8 from Everton. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (12%), 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 3–0 (9%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 67% | 22% | 11% | 51% |
| Goals model | 50% | 29% | 21% | 39% |
| AI analysts | 58% | 25% | 17% | 49% |
| Our forecast | 68% | 21% | 11% | 55% |
Verdict: Our final probabilities slightly favor a home win and a high-scoring game compared to the market. The Dressing Room's belief in Arsenal's quality was not fully followed, as the model accounted for the tactical risks of rotation and key absences.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Arsenal: last 6
DWWWLW · 12 scored, 8 conceded
| 21 Oct | at Bayern München UEFA Champions League | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Nottingham Forest | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Lille UEFA Champions League | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Leeds | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Brighton | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Sep | at Ipswich League Cup | 4–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
Everton: last 6
LDWWDD · 6 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Chelsea | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Hull City | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Ipswich | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Wolves League Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Tottenham | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Manchester United | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 away: DDDW
Season stats
| Arsenal | Everton | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.57 | Goals scored per game | 1.14 |
| 0.71 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 2.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| 29% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 57% | Clean sheets | 43% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 29% |
| 1.29 | Yellow cards per game | 1.71 |
League matches only, 7 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Arsenal | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | +11 | 21 | LWWWW |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | +8 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | +16 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | +3 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 | LWWLD |
| … | |||||
| 8 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 | WWDWL |
| 9 | Leeds | 7 | +3 | 10 | DLDWD |
| 10 | Hull City | 8 | +1 | 10 | DLDLD |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLDWD |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | -4 | 10 | DLWLW |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | -1 | 9 | WWLLD |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | -2 | 9 | WWDLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Arsenal won 4, Everton 0, 2 draws; 1.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Arsenal | 2–0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Everton | 0–1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Everton | 1–1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 14 Dec 2024 | Arsenal | 0–0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 19 May 2024 | Arsenal | 2–1 | Everton | Premier League |
| 17 Sep 2023 | Everton | 0–1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1David Raya
Defenders
- 4B. White
- 15E. Konsa
- 6Gabriel Magalhães
- 49M. Lewis-Skelly
Midfielders
- 41D. Rice
- 23Mikel Merino
- 20N. Madueke
- 8M. Ødegaard
- 10E. Eze
Forward
- 14V. Gyökeres
Substitutes (9)
- 39Bruno Guimarães
- 36Martín Zubimendi
- 33R. Calafiori
- 12J. Timber
- 5P. Hincapié
- 3Cristhian Mosquera
- 13Kepa
- 56M. Dowman
- 29K. Havertz
Goalkeeper
- 1J. Pickford
Defenders
- 34M. Röhl
- 6J. Tarkowski
- 15J. O'Brien
- 16V. Mykolenko
Midfielders
- 45H. Armstrong
- 37J. Garner
- 22B. Johnson
- 8K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 19Tyrique George
Forward
- 11T. Barry
Substitutes (9)
- 58B. Graham
- 12M. Travers
- 31T. King
- 2A. Maitland-Niles
- 5M. Keane
- 20T. Dibling
- 23C. Nørgaard
- 24C. Alcaraz
- 30H. Hackney
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutB. SakaThigh
- OutW. SalibaBack
- OutC. TzolisHamstring
No absences reported.
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Arsenal is currently second in the Premier League table with 18 points from seven matches.[1]
- Arsenal's home record this season includes three wins and no losses.[1]
- Everton sits in eighth place with 10 points after seven league games.[1]
- Everton has struggled away from home, recording zero wins in three away fixtures.[1]
- Arsenal's recent form includes a 2-2 draw against Bayern München in the Champions League.[2]
Sources
- uk.sports.yahoo.com – Everton line-ups for Arsenal as Jake O'Brien returns and winger experiment abandoned - Yahoo (2026-10-24)
- football.london – Arsenal predicted XI vs Everton as Viktor Gyokeres decision made and Riccardo Calafiori starts - Football London (2026-10-24)
- sports.yahoo.com – Arsenal vs Everton injury latest as Bukayo Saka one of three definitely out - Yahoo Sports (2026-10-24)
- bbc.co.uk – Arsenal fear Saka could be out for two months (2026-10-23)
Off the pitch
- There are ongoing questions regarding Bukayo Saka's durability due to a history of muscle injuries.[4]
Match context
- Stadium
- Emirates Stadium, London
- 60,383 seats · grass
- Travel for Everton
- 286 km
- Rest days
- Arsenal 2Everton 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Arsenal 3 · Everton 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 19 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Tony Harrington
- 3.5 yellow cards per game and 0.50 penalties per game over 6 games — below the Premier League average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- Mikel Arteta
- Arsenal, since Dec 2019
- D. Moyes
- Everton, since Jan 2025
- Goals in this league
- Premier League average: 2.89 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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