Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Liverpool to win: 49%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 63% · bookies 62% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', with a modest four-point tilt to Liverpool driven by home advantage and squad depth despite the missing players. The Sceptic's lean toward Brighton was not followed, because its points shift rests on form and goal difference that the market already largely prices in.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Liverpool's chances are better than the bookmakers say. The Sceptic thinks Brighton & Hove Albion are underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsLiverpool's strong attacking lineup outweighs Brighton's rotation and injury issues.
Liverpool is missing Dominik Szoboszlai and Victor Munoz (a doubt), but fields Wirtz, Gakpo, and Isak. Brighton is heavily rotated, with Diego Gomez (reported out, not confirmed by the club) and De Cuyper (reported out, not confirmed by the club) rested midweek, and is missing key players like Mitoma and Ferguson.
Liverpool: strongly underrated
High✓ Right The Dressing Room
mood and pressureBrighton's superior form and goal difference give them the edge in this clash.
Liverpool, despite winning four of their last five all-competitions, is currently struggling for goals in the Premier League. Liverpool is also in a heavy rotation, facing their fifth match in 28 days.
Liverpool: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh✓ Right The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongBrighton has won 5 of their last 7 league games, scoring 23 and conceding only 5. Liverpool is currently struggling for goals in the Premier League, having scored 9 goals in their last 7 league matches.
Brighton & Hove: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Liverpool host third-placed Brighton at Anfield still chasing a first Premier League home win this season. Brighton arrive in strong league form but with a long injury list and midweek rotation. Both squads are stretched, and Gravenberch returns for Liverpool after suspension.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Liverpool win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Brighton & Hove Albion win or draw
- 51%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 63%
- 4+ goals
- 41%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 63%
- No
- 37%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Liverpool and 1.4 from Brighton & Hove Albion. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (7%), 2–0 (7%), 1–2 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 45% | 25% | 30% | 62% |
| Goals model | 21% | 24% | 56% | 59% |
| AI analysts | 37% | 23% | 41% | 60% |
| Our forecast | 49% | 24% | 26% | 63% |
Verdict: We only tilt mildly toward Liverpool because the market already accounts for form and table position, and Liverpool's league home record and scoring issues keep the gap small.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Liverpool: last 6
WWWLWW · 16 scored, 11 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Villarreal UEFA Champions League | 4–3 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Brentford | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | at Lask Linz UEFA Champions League | 6–3 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Manchester City | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Bournemouth | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Sep | vs Tottenham League Cup | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWDW
Brighton & Hove Albion: last 6
DWWWWW · 17 scored, 2 conceded
| 22 Oct | at FK Jablonec UEFA Europa Conference League | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Crystal Palace | 5–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Kauno Žalgiris UEFA Europa Conference League | 4–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Sunderland | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Arsenal | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | at Manchester United League Cup | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 away: DWWWL
Season stats
| Liverpool | Brighton & Hove Albion | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | Goals scored per game | 3.29 |
| 1.14 | Goals conceded per game | 0.71 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game at home | 3.25 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game away | 3.33 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| 43% | Both teams scored | 29% |
| 43% | Clean sheets | 71% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 2.71 | Yellow cards per game | 2.14 |
League matches only, 7 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Liverpool | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | +11 | 21 | LWWWW |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | +8 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 8 | +16 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | +3 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 | LWWLD |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | +5 | 11 | DLDWD |
| 7 | Newcastle | 8 | -2 | 11 | WLLWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Liverpool won 4, Brighton & Hove Albion 2, 0 draws; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 2026 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2–1 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 14 Feb 2026 | Liverpool | 3–0 | Brighton & Hove Albion | FA Cup |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Liverpool | 2–0 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League |
| 19 May 2025 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 3–2 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Liverpool | 2–1 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League |
| 30 Oct 2024 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2–3 | Liverpool | League Cup |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1Alisson Becker
Defenders
- 33R. Araújo
- 5J. Jacquet
- 4V. van Dijk
- 6M. Kerkez
Midfielders
- 38R. Gravenberch
- 10A. Mac Allister
- 29B. Barcola
- 7F. Wirtz
- 18C. Gakpo
Forward
- 9A. Isak
Substitutes (9)
- 73R. Ngumoha
- 25G. Mamardashvili
- 2J. Gomez
- 21K. Tsimikas
- 3W. Endo
- 42T. Nyoni
- 53J. McConnell
- 14F. Chiesa
- 67L. Koumas
Goalkeeper
- 1B. Verbruggen
Defenders
- 24F. Kadıoğlu
- 44L. Vušković
- 5L. Dunk
- 21O. Boscagli
Midfielders
- 13P. Groß
- 14José María Andrés Baixauli
- 25D. Gómez
- 26Y. Ayari
- 29M. De Cuyper
Forward
- 19C. Kostoulas
Substitutes (9)
- 12P. David
- 15I. Osman
- 10G. Rutter
- 35M. Yalcouyé
- 33M. O'Riley
- 8J. Hinshelwood
- 20Costinha
- 3J. Hadjam
- 23J. Steele
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutC. BradleyKnee
- OutH. EkitikeAchilles Tendon
- OutJ. FrimpongMuscle
Show 4 more
- OutG. LeoniKnee
- OutA. NalloLeg
- OutD. SzoboszlaiMuscle
- DoubtV. MunozKnee
- OutF. AzeezAbdominal strain
- OutE. FergusonAnkle
- OutY. MintehInjury
Show 5 more
- OutK. MitomaHamstring
- OutS. TzimasKnee
- OutM. WiefferKnee
- OutZ. YohannaInjury
- DoubtP. StruijkRest
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Brighton sit third on 16 points with a league record of five wins, one draw and one defeat, scoring 23 and conceding five.[2]
- Liverpool are fifth on 12 points and are still without a Premier League home win this season.[2]
- Dominik Szoboszlai is out with a hamstring problem and Trey Nyoni (reported out, not confirmed by the club) is expected to start in midfield in his place.[1][3]
- Brighton are missing several attackers including Mitoma, Ferguson and Tzimas, while Minteh and Wieffer are close to returns and may only make the bench.[1][2]
- This is the fifth of nine matches in a 28-day spell for Liverpool, with heavy rotation ongoing.[1]
- Brighton rotated heavily in midweek and drew 0-0 at FK Jablonec in the Conference League.[1]
- Liverpool have struggled for league goals with nine scored from about 10.9 xG and have conceded first in four of seven league games.[5]
- Ryan Gravenberch is available again after serving a one-match Premier League suspension.[1]
Sources
- liverpoolfc.com – Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion: Team news - Liverpool FC (2026-10-25)
- sports.yahoo.com – Liverpool vs Brighton – Match preview and team news - Yahoo Sports (2026-10-25)
- sports.yahoo.com – Liverpool vs Brighton – Predicted lineup and team news - Yahoo Sports (2026-10-25)
- bbc.co.uk – Why are Liverpool struggling for Premier League goals? (2026-10-25)
- bbc.co.uk – No mistake over Gravenberch red card - panel (2026-10-21)
- bbc.co.uk – Prem panel backs Struijk red card even though FA overturned suspension (2026-10-21)
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- Anfield, Liverpool
- 61,276 seats · grass
- Travel for Brighton & Hove Albion
- 345 km
- Rest days
- Liverpool 4Brighton & Hove Albion 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Liverpool 4 · Brighton & Hove Albion 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 42 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Samuel Barrott
- 3.0 yellow cards per game and 0.20 penalties per game over 5 games — below the Premier League average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- Andoni Iraola
- Liverpool, since Jul 2026
- F. Hürzeler
- Brighton & Hove Albion, since Jun 2024
- Goals in this league
- Premier League average: 2.84 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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