Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Chelsea to win: 53%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 64% · bookies 63% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers' because The Sceptic's 2-point upgrade of Chelsea is offset by The Dressing Room's 4-point downgrade, leaving the home win at the market level. The Dressing Room's view was not followed in full, since the verified head-to-head and home record argue against trimming Chelsea as far as its 4-point shift suggests.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Chelsea's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsChelsea's strong home form and tactical advantage give them the edge over a struggling Spurs side.
Tottenham is missing key players like Udogie and faces doubts over Maddison's fitness.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureChelsea's superior form and historical dominance at Stamford Bridge give them the edge.
Chelsea is 4th in the Premier League with 13 points, while Tottenham sits in 17th place with 6 points. Tottenham recently held a team-bonding camp in Marbella to rebuild morale.
Tottenham: slightly overrated
More goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongChelsea's recent defensive improvement may be larger than the market's modest edge suggests.
Chelsea conceded a league-high 12 goals before the international break but only one since, keeping a first clean sheet at Everton, where Pedro Neto scored twice. Malo Gusto is fit again. Tottenham's 3-1 win over Coventry was a first league win this season, and they remain without an away league win.
Chelsea: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Chelsea host Tottenham at Stamford Bridge with contrasting form: fourth place and back-to-back league wins against a Spurs side 16th with one win all season. Both squads carry several absences.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Chelsea win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Tottenham Hotspur win or draw
- 47%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 64%
- 4+ goals
- 42%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Chelsea and 1.3 from Tottenham Hotspur. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (10%), 2–0 (8%), 1–0 (8%), 3–1 (6%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 53% | 24% | 24% | 63% |
| Goals model | 60% | 21% | 19% | 65% |
| AI analysts | 59% | 22% | 19% | 66% |
| Our forecast | 53% | 24% | 23% | 64% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market: Chelsea's home record and the head-to-head dominance support the favourite, but Maddison and Kulusevski doubts and Spurs' returning players keep a small offsetting adjustment.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Chelsea: last 6
WWLDWL · 16 scored, 11 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Everton | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Bournemouth | 5–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Brentford | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Hull City | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Sep | vs Leeds League Cup | 6–3 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Arsenal | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WDWWW
Tottenham Hotspur: last 6
WDLLDD · 7 scored, 8 conceded
| 19 Oct | vs Coventry | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Manchester United | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Aston Villa | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Sep | at Liverpool League Cup | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Everton | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Nottingham Forest | 0–0 | D |
Last 4 away: DLDL
Season stats
| Chelsea | Tottenham Hotspur | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.43 | Goals scored per game | 0.86 |
| 1.86 | Goals conceded per game | 1.43 |
| 3.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 86% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 57% |
| 1.86 | Yellow cards per game | 1.29 |
League matches only, 7 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Chelsea | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | +8 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | +16 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | +3 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 | LWWLD |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | +5 | 11 | DLDWD |
| 7 | Newcastle | 8 | -2 | 11 | WLLWL |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 | WWDWL |
| … | |||||
| 11 | Everton | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLDWD |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | -4 | 10 | DLWLW |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | -1 | 9 | WWLLD |
| 14 | Tottenham Hotspur | 8 | -2 | 9 | WWDLD |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | -2 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 16 | Manchester United | 8 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | -10 | 7 | LLWDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Chelsea won 5, Tottenham Hotspur 1, 0 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | Chelsea | 1–2 | Tottenham Hotspur | Friendlies Clubs |
| 19 May 2026 | Chelsea | 2–1 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Tottenham Hotspur | 0–1 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 3 Apr 2025 | Chelsea | 1–0 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League |
| 8 Dec 2024 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3–4 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2 May 2024 | Chelsea | 2–0 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 39M. Penders
Defenders
- 34Joshua Kofi Acheampong
- 5M. Lacroix
- 6L. Colwill
Midfielders
- 7Pedro Neto
- 25M. Caicedo
- 14J. Henderson
- 21J. Hato
- 10C. Palmer
- 23Geovany Tcherno Quenda
Forward
- 17M. Rogers
Substitutes (9)
- 28T. Sharman-Lowe
- 27M. Gusto
- 2M. Palestra
- 4V. Barco
- 45R. Lavia
- 32M. Nicoll-Jazuli
- 41Estêvão
- 18D. Welbeck
- 3W. Fofana
Goalkeeper
- 31A. Kinský
Defenders
- 14A. Gray
- 6J. van Hecke
- 37M. van de Ven
- 3A. Robertson
Midfielders
- 18Mateus Fernandes
- 16S. Tonali
- 20M. Kudus
- 10J. Maddison
- 11M. Tel
Forward
- 22Omar Marmoush
Substitutes (9)
- 19D. Solanke
- 68L. Williams-Barnett
- 52Callum Latif Olusesi
- 21D. Kulusevski
- 8C. Gallagher
- 33B. Davies
- 23Pedro Porro
- 5M. Senesi
- 39M. Dúbravka
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutP. ChavarriaInjury
- OutE. EmeghaMuscle
- OutJ. GittensAnkle
Show 2 more
- OutR. JamesKnee
- OutE. MartinezBroken jawbone
- Susp.R. BentancurSuspended
- OutL. BergvallKnee
- OutM. MudrykAnkle
Show 3 more
- OutW. OdobertKnee
- OutX. SimonsKnee
- OutD. UdogieKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Chelsea sit fourth with 13 points from seven games; Tottenham are 16th with six points.[2]
- Chelsea have won their last two league games, including 2-0 at Everton with a first clean sheet of the season.[1][6]
- Chelsea are unbeaten at home in the league this season with two wins and a draw.[2]
- Tottenham's only league win came last time out, 3-1 against Coventry, with Maddison (reported out, not confirmed by the club) scoring on his first start in 18 months.[2][7]
- Tottenham have won only once in their last 36 Premier League visits to Stamford Bridge.[2]
- Chelsea conceded a league-high 12 goals before the international break but only one since.[6]
- Tottenham have only four league wins in 2026 from 27 matches.[7]
Sources
- twaslnews1.twaslnews.com – Chelsea lineup vs Tottenham: Mike Penders set to replace Emiliano Martinez - شبكة تواصل الإخبارية (2026-10-24)
- sabcsport.com – Tottenham face James Maddison injury dilemma ahead of Chelsea clash - SABC Sport (2026-10-24)
- thenational.co.za – Roberto de Zerbi urges Tottenham Hotspur to use Stamford Bridge record as fuel against Chelsea - thenational.co.za (2026-10-24)
- bbc.co.uk – New Victor Moses? How Alonso has transformed Neto (2026-10-23)
- bbc.co.uk – How England hopeful Acheampong is giving Chelsea a big decision to make (2026-10-21)
- bbc.co.uk – Maddison's magic moment for Spurs - 18 months in the making (2026-10-19)
- bbc.co.uk – Beer & Blackpool beach was how British players bonded - Pulis (2026-10-19)
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- Stamford Bridge, London
- 41,841 seats · grass
- Travel for Tottenham Hotspur
- 0 km
- Rest days
- Chelsea 7Tottenham Hotspur 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Chelsea 1 · Tottenham Hotspur 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 28 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Chris Kavanagh
- 5.3 yellow cards per game and no penalties over 6 games — above the Premier League average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- Xabi Alonso
- Chelsea, since Jul 2026
- R. De Zerbi
- Tottenham Hotspur, since Sep 2025
- Goals in this league
- Premier League average: 2.89 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
