Coventry City vs Fulham prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Fulham to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 54% · ✗ 1 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers remained close to the bookmakers' lines, with minimal shifts away from the market. The Sceptic's view that Coventry deserved a higher home probability was not followed, as the final probability for the home side remained low.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Fulham's chances are better than the bookmakers say. The Sceptic thinks Coventry City are underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFulham near full-strength edge a depleted Coventry back line
Coventry are without Wright, Eccles, Woolfenden and Amenda, and their confirmed XI springs surprises: Onyeka (reported out, not confirmed by the club) and Mason-Clark (reported out, not confirmed by the club) drop out, with Cherif (reported out, not confirmed by the club) and Sakamoto (reported out, not confirmed by the club) starting and Rudoni (reported out, not confirmed by the club) used deeper. Fulham are near full-strength - Larsson's groin doubt is resolved and he starts, with only Sessegnon suspended. Key duel: Iwobi's link play against Grimes and Yirenkyi's double pivot.
Fulham: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✓ Right The Dressing Room
mood and pressureFulham's tightening defence and calmer camp edge a tense relegation six-pointer.
One point separates 18th and 19th. Coventry have lost 5 of 7, conceding 14, and fell 3-1 at Spurs last time out. Fulham finally won under Arbeloa against Hull, have conceded just 3 in their last 4, and fan pressure on the boss has eased.
Fulham: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✓ Right The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongFulham's away price looks short - Coventry at home deserve closer to even money.
The market makes Fulham 42.7% favourites, but the goals model has this near even (35% home vs 37% away). Fulham are yet to win away this season and scored once from 18 shots vs Hull; Coventry won two of three before the Spurs defeat.
Coventry: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
This Premier League encounter is a crucial relegation six-pointer between two struggling sides, Coventry City and Fulham. With both teams sitting near the bottom of the table, the match is expected to be highly competitive, featuring key absences for Coventry and a defensive focus for Fulham.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Coventry City win or draw
- 57%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Fulham win or draw
- 71%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Coventry City and 1.6 from Fulham. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (7%), 1–0 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 30% | 28% | 43% | 54% |
| Goals model | 35% | 29% | 37% | 47% |
| AI analysts | 32% | 28% | 39% | 50% |
| Our forecast | 29% | 27% | 43% | 55% |
Verdict: The final probabilities remain very close to the market, reflecting the tight nature of the relegation battle. The market's slight lean towards the away side was not followed, as the final home probability remained near the market's initial assessment.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Coventry City: last 6
LWWLLL · 7 scored, 13 conceded
| 19 Oct | at Tottenham | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Oct | vs Newcastle | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Nottingham Forest | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Aston Villa League Cup | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Brighton | 0–5 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Manchester City | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 at home: WLLL
Fulham: last 6
WLDWDL · 8 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Hull City | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Ipswich | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Manchester United | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | at West Ham League Cup | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Liverpool | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Crystal Palace | 2–3 | L |
Last 4 away: LWDL
Season stats
| Coventry City | Fulham | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.86 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.43 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 29% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 57% | Failed to score | 29% |
| 1.14 | Yellow cards per game | 2.00 |
League matches only, 7 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Coventry City | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | -4 | 10 | DLWLW |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | -1 | 9 | WWLLD |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | -2 | 9 | WWDLD |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | -2 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 16 | Manchester United | 8 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | -10 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | -4 | 6 | DLLLW |
| 19 | Coventry City | 8 | -9 | 6 | LLWWL |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | -8 | 4 | LLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Coventry City won 2, Fulham 0, 0 draws; 4.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Apr 2022 | Fulham | 1–3 | Coventry City | Championship |
| 2 Oct 2021 | Coventry City | 4–1 | Fulham | Championship |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 19C. Rushworth
Defenders
- 27M. van Ewijk
- 4B. Thomas
- 2E. Pinnock
- 3J. Dasilva
Midfielders
- 6M. Grimes
- 8Caleb Marfo Yirenkyi
- 7T. Sakamoto
- 5J. Rudoni
- 23B. Thomas-Asante
Forward
- 49S. Cherif
Substitutes (9)
- 25D. Bentley
- 12S. Mfuni
- 20K. Kesler-Hayden
- 10E. Mason-Clark
- 16F. Onyeka
- 29V. Torp
- 38G. Hamer
- 14T. Awoniyi
- 34Y. Gboho
Goalkeeper
- 1B. Leno
Defenders
- 21T. Castagne
- 22D. Affengruber
- 3C. Bassey
- 33A. Robinson
Midfielders
- 15H. Larsson
- 19S. Charles
- 14Oscar Bobb
- 24Joshua King
- 17A. Iwobi
Forward
- 7Gonzalo García
Substitutes (9)
- 2K. Tete
- 5J. Andersen
- 16S. Berge
- 10T. Cairney
- 20Manuel Ángel
- 11Kevin
- 8César Palacios
- 9Rodrigo Muniz
- 23B. Lecomte
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutA. AmendaCalf
- OutJ. EcclesInjury
- OutL. WoolfendenKnee
Show 1 more
- OutH. WrightMuscle
- Susp.R. SessegnonSuspended
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Coventry City is currently in 18th place with six points from seven matches.[1][3][4]
- Fulham occupies 19th place in the standings, having secured five points from seven games.[1][3][4]
- The match is being refereed by Adam Herczeg.[3]
- Coventry City has suffered a 0-5 home defeat to Brighton, which was part of a five-game losing streak at home.[1][3][4]
Sources
- thefootballfaithful.com – Coventry City vs Fulham – Predicted lineup and team news - The Football Faithful (2026-10-24)
- thefootballfaithful.com – Fulham XI vs Coventry City – Predicted lineup and team news - The Football Faithful (2026-10-24)
- thefootballfaithful.com – Coventry City vs Fulham – Match preview and team news - The Football Faithful (2026-10-24)
- bbc.co.uk – Coventry City vs Fulham: Premier League preview, team news, stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-24)
- fulhamish.co.uk – Five things to look out for as Fulham look to break the Coventry curse - Fulhamish (2026-10-24)
Off the pitch
- Fan criticism directed at Fulham manager Alvaro Arbeloa has decreased following a recent win.[7]
Match context
- Stadium
- The Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry, West Midlands
- 32,609 seats · grass
- Travel for Fulham
- 137 km
- Rest days
- Coventry City 4Fulham 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Coventry City 2 · Fulham 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 27 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Adam Herczeg
- 4.2 yellow cards per game and 0.25 penalties per game over 8 games — above the Premier League average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- F. Lampard
- Coventry City, since Nov 2024
- Álvaro Arbeloa
- Fulham, since Aug 2026
- Goals in this league
- Premier League average: 2.89 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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