Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Newcastle 39%)
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 62% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our final numbers stay close to the bookmakers', with only small moves: The Coach's draw shift of 4 points and The Sceptic's 3-point cut to Newcastle partly cancel out, leaving home 34%, draw 27%, away 39%. The Dressing Room's view was not followed in full because the availability doubts on both sides temper its case for a strongly high-scoring outcome.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsHenderson (a doubt) fails to make it, so Benitez starts for Palace with Disasi back from suspension. Newcastle are without Livramento (knee) and leave Botman (reported out, not confirmed by the club) and Thiaw (reported out, not confirmed by the club) out - Burn (reported out, not confirmed by the club) and Schar (reported out, not confirmed by the club) form a new centre-back pair, with Osula (reported out, not confirmed by the club) up front. Elanga (a doubt) and Ramsey (a doubt) are bench-only returns from injury.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureHigh pressure and defensive weaknesses suggest a volatile match with goals likely.
Palace is under intense pressure from the board after a 5-0 defeat and Sage's future is in doubt. Newcastle is winless in their last five visits to Selhurst Park. Both teams have shown defensive instability, with Newcastle conceding 14 goals in 16 games.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe pressure on both sides suggests a tight match with goals likely to be scored.
Crystal Palace is 16th with 7 points from 7 games, while Newcastle is 14th with 8 points. Palace is under heavy pressure following a 5-0 defeat at Brighton.
Newcastle: slightly overrated
More goalsLow AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Two under-pressure managers meet at Selhurst Park with Crystal Palace 16th on 7 points and Newcastle United 14th on 8. Palace come off a 5-0 defeat at Brighton, Newcastle off successive losses.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Crystal Palace win or draw
- 61%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Newcastle United win or draw
- 66%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Crystal Palace and 1.6 from Newcastle United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 0–1 (7%), 1–0 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 33% | 26% | 40% | 62% |
| Goals model | 40% | 23% | 37% | 70% |
| AI analysts | 39% | 26% | 35% | 65% |
| Our forecast | 34% | 27% | 39% | 61% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because both squads carry real uncertainty: Palace's late keeper decision and several doubtful attackers offset Newcastle's defensive absences, and the two sides' form and league positions are nearly identical.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Crystal Palace: last 6
DLLWDW · 11 scored, 11 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Beşiktaş UEFA Europa League | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Brighton | 0–5 | L |
| 15 Oct | at Lyon UEFA Europa League | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Nottingham Forest | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Leeds | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Sep | vs Lech Poznan UEFA Europa League | 4–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWLWL
Newcastle United: last 6
LLWLWD · 7 scored, 12 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Aston Villa | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Oct | at Coventry | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Hull City | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | at Leeds | 1–4 | L |
| 8 Sep | at Millwall League Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Bournemouth | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 away: LLWW
Season stats
| Crystal Palace | Newcastle United | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | Goals scored per game | 1.43 |
| 2.43 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 43% | Failed to score | 14% |
| 1.29 | Yellow cards per game | 2.71 |
League matches only, 7 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Crystal Palace | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | +3 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 | LWWLD |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | +5 | 11 | DLDWD |
| 7 | Newcastle United | 8 | -2 | 11 | WLLWL |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 | WWDWL |
| 9 | Leeds | 7 | +3 | 10 | DLDWD |
| 10 | Hull City | 8 | +1 | 10 | DLDLD |
| … | |||||
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | -2 | 9 | WWDLD |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | -2 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 16 | Manchester United | 8 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | -10 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | -4 | 6 | DLLLW |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | -9 | 6 | LLWWL |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | -8 | 4 | LLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Crystal Palace won 2, Newcastle United 3, 1 draw; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Crystal Palace | 2–1 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 4 Jan 2026 | Newcastle United | 2–0 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 16 Apr 2025 | Newcastle United | 5–0 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 30 Nov 2024 | Crystal Palace | 1–1 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 24 Apr 2024 | Crystal Palace | 2–0 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 21 Oct 2023 | Newcastle United | 4–0 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 44W. Benítez
Defenders
- 26C. Richards
- 5A. Disasi
- 6J. Canvot
Midfielders
- 25A. Khalaili
- 20A. Wharton
- 18D. Kamada
- 3T. Mitchell
- 11D. McNeil
- 10Yeremy Pino
Forward
- 14J. Mateta
Substitutes (9)
- 24D. Osorio
- 28C. Doucouré
- 19W. Hughes
- 30Óscar Mingueza
- 8J. Lerma
- 33B. Chilwell
- 31R. Matthews
- 29E. Guessand
- 9E. Nketiah
Goalkeeper
- 21L. Horníček
Defenders
- 37A. Dedić
- 5F. Schär
- 33D. Burn
- 3L. Hall
Midfielders
- 6Nico González
- 7Joelinton
- 23J. Murphy
- 28J. Willock
- 11H. Barnes
Forward
- 10W. Osula
Substitutes (9)
- 19A. Elanga
- 1N. Pope
- 4S. Botman
- 12M. Thiaw
- 8A. Bamba
- 14Sean Steur
- 17B. Touré
- 41J. Ramsey
- 9Y. Wissa
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutC. RiadKnee
- OutT. TomiyasuCalf
- DoubtD. HendersonFoot
Show 2 more
- DoubtJ. LarsenInjury
- DoubtQ. TimberInjury
- OutE. JaouenMuscle
- OutV. LivramentoKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Palace sit 16th with 7 points from 7 league games, one point behind 14th-placed Newcastle, so a home win would lift them above their visitors.[3][4]
- Palace were beaten 5-0 at Brighton in their last league game before drawing 2-2 at Beşiktaş in the Europa League.[1][3]
- Newcastle have lost three of their last four league games, including 0-1 at home to Aston Villa and 4-1 at Coventry.[3][4]
- Newcastle have conceded eight goals in their last two away league games.[1]
- Palace have conceded ten goals across their last three games.[5]
- This is Palace's first home game after three straight away matches without a win, two of them in Europe.[3]
- Newcastle are winless in their last five visits to Selhurst Park, with their only win in the past eleven coming in 2020.[3][5]
- The last meeting saw Palace beat Newcastle 2-1 at home in April 2026.[5]
Sources
- nufcblog.co.uk – Palace vs Newcastle - Predicted line-ups and match preview - NUFC Blog (2026-10-25)
- themag.co.uk – The complete Crystal Palace v Newcastle United preview ahead of Premier League clash - The Mag (2026-10-25)
- chroniclelive.co.uk – Matthias Jaissle unruffled by Crystal Palace manager sack talk as Newcastle look for response - Chronicle Live (2026-10-25)
- lastwordonsports.com – Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United: Team News and Predicted Lineups for Oct. 25 - Last Word On Sports (2026-10-25)
- thefalse9.com – Crystal Palace Injury News vs Newcastle: Henderson Late Test, Disasi Back - The False 9 (2026-10-25)
- bbc.co.uk – What is going on at 'chaotic' Newcastle? (2026-10-23)
Off the pitch
- Palace manager Pierre Sage is under board pressure after the Brighton defeat, has publicly apologised to fans and cast doubt over his own future.[4][5]
- Newcastle manager Matthias Jaissle faces mounting pressure after back-to-back defeats, with fans booing the team after the Villa loss and questioning the tactical set-up.[4][9]
- Newcastle's club leadership is staying calm publicly, but reports suggest serious pressure will follow if there is no result.[9]
Match context
- Stadium
- Selhurst Park, London
- 26,309 seats · grass
- Travel for Newcastle United
- 397 km
- Rest days
- Crystal Palace 2Newcastle United 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Crystal Palace 3 · Newcastle United 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 13°C · wind 31 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Paul Tierney
- 4.0 yellow cards per game and no penalties over 7 games — close to the Premier League average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- P. Sage
- Crystal Palace, since Jul 2026
- M. Jaissle
- Newcastle United, since Aug 2026
- Goals in this league
- Premier League average: 2.84 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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