Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Arsenal to win: 62%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 52% · bookies 52% · ✗ 1 goals
In short
Struggling Nottingham Forest, without a home goal this season, host second-placed Arsenal at the City Ground. Forest have major doubts over Gibbs-White and Milenkovic, while Arsenal welcome back Saka, Odegaard and Havertz. Arsenal's poor recent record at this ground keeps the draw in play.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Nottingham Forest win or draw
- 38%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Arsenal win or draw
- 86%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 0.8 goals from Nottingham Forest and 1.9 from Arsenal. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–2 (12%), 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–3 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 16% | 24% | 60% | 52% |
| Goals model | 27% | 30% | 43% | 42% |
| AI analysts | 19% | 28% | 53% | 43% |
| Our forecast | 14% | 24% | 62% | 52% |
- The Coach: Forest's likely absences of Gibbs-White and Milenkovic, alongside Igor Jesus, leave a makeshift spine, while Arsenal field close to their strongest XI. That pushes Arsenal to around 56% with the total leaning under.
- The Dressing Room: Arsenal's form and returning attackers justify favouring the away side, but their poor City Ground record and the Bayern game ahead temper it. Forest's home goal drought points to a low-scoring match, with over 2.5 around 40%.
- The Sceptic: The draw looks slightly underpriced given Arsenal's two straight 0-0 draws at this ground and Forest's home scoring drought, so away is trimmed to about 56% and the draw raised to roughly 27%, with the over below the market's 52%.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market with a small shift from away to draw: Arsenal's quality and form make them clear favourites, but their weak recent record at the City Ground and Forest's home defensive desperation under a pressured coach make a low-scoring contest more likely than the pricing suggests.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Nottingham Forest: last 6
LLWDDL · 5 scored, 9 conceded
| 11 Oct | at Crystal Palace | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Coventry | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Aston Villa | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Tottenham | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | at Liverpool | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Aug | vs Leeds League Cup | 0–2 | L |
Last 4 at home: LDLL
Arsenal: last 6
WWLWWW · 12 scored, 6 conceded
| 13 Oct | vs Lille UEFA Champions League | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Leeds | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Brighton | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Sep | at Ipswich League Cup | 4–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Sunderland | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Sep | at Napoli UEFA Champions League | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LWWWW
Season stats
| Nottingham Forest | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.83 | Goals scored per game | 1.67 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 0.83 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.33 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 2.50 | Yellow cards per game | 1.33 |
League matches only, 6 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Nottingham Forest | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | +11 | 21 | LWWWW |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | +8 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | +16 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | +3 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 | LWWLD |
| … | |||||
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | -2 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 16 | Manchester United | 8 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | -10 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | -4 | 6 | DLLLW |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | -9 | 6 | LLWWL |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | -8 | 4 | LLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Nottingham Forest won 0, Arsenal 4, 2 draws; 2.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | Nottingham Forest | 0–0 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Arsenal | 3–0 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 26 Feb 2025 | Nottingham Forest | 0–0 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Arsenal | 3–0 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 30 Jan 2024 | Nottingham Forest | 1–2 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Arsenal | 2–1 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 26M. Sels
Defenders
- 23Jair
- 2O. Diomande
- 5Murillo
Midfielders
- 27D. Muñoz
- 24J. McAtee
- 21X. Schlager
- 3N. Williams
- 8N. Domínguez
- 14D. Ndoye
Forward
- 19L. Delap
Substitutes (9)
- 7C. Hudson-Odoi
- 22R. Yates
- 15A. Kalimuendo
- 9C. Wood
- 12John
- 25L. Netz
- 31N. Milenković
- 34O. Aina
- 6I. Sangaré
Goalkeeper
- 1David Raya
Defenders
- 4B. White
- 15E. Konsa
- 6Gabriel Magalhães
- 33R. Calafiori
Midfielders
- 41D. Rice
- 39Bruno Guimarães
- 7B. Saka
- 8M. Ødegaard
- 10E. Eze
Forward
- 29K. Havertz
Substitutes (9)
- 3Cristhian Mosquera
- 12J. Timber
- 49M. Lewis-Skelly
- 23Mikel Merino
- 56M. Dowman
- 36Martín Zubimendi
- 14V. Gyökeres
- 30I. Meslier
- 20N. Madueke
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutM. Gibbs-WhiteInjury
- OutIgor JesusCalf
- OutN. SavonaKnee
- OutP. HincapieAnkle
- OutW. SalibaBack
- OutC. TzolisHamstring
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Forest sit 17th with 5 points from 6 league games and have lost their last two matches, including 1-3 at Crystal Palace.[3][6]
- Arsenal are second with 15 points from 6 games and have dropped league points only once this season.[4]
- Forest have not scored a goal in four home outings at the City Ground this season.[4]
- Arsenal have won only one of their last six visits to the City Ground, with the last two ending 0-0.[2][4]
- Arsenal beat Lille 3-0 in the Champions League on Tuesday, with Saka scoring, and face Bayern Munich next Wednesday.[1][4]
- Arteta is unlikely to rotate heavily despite the Bayern game, with Saka, Odegaard and Havertz returning to the lineup.[1]
Sources
- standard.co.uk – Arsenal XI vs Nottingham Forest: Confirmed team news ...
- sportsmole.co.uk – Team News: Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal injury, suspension ...
- paininthearsenal.com – Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal injury news as 6 ruled out and 1 ...
- nottinghampost.com – Mikel Arteta makes 'beautiful' Nottingham Forest admission ...
- allfootballapp.com – Nottingham Forest News, Transfers, Fixtures & Squad | AllFootball
- skysports.com – Nottingham Forest transfers, latest news, rumours and gossip ...
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
- 30,576 seats · grass
- Travel for Arsenal
- 175 km
- Rest days
- Nottingham Forest 7Arsenal 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Nottingham Forest 1 · Arsenal 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 17 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Michael Oliver
- 2.7 yellow cards per game and 0.17 penalties per game over 6 games — below the Premier League average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- O. Glasner
- Nottingham Forest, since Aug 2026
- Mikel Arteta
- Arsenal, since Dec 2019
- Goals in this league
- Premier League average: 2.91 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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