Leeds United vs Manchester United prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Leeds 39%)
Goals call3+ goals 51% · bookies 49% · ✗ 2 goals
In short
United travel with several absences and a short turnaround after a midweek Champions League trip. Our probabilities stay close to the market with a slight lean to Leeds.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Leeds United win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Manchester United win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Leeds United and 1.3 from Manchester United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 37% | 28% | 34% | 49% |
| Goals model | 49% | 27% | 24% | 49% |
| AI analysts | 48% | 27% | 25% | 51% |
| Our forecast | 38% | 28% | 33% | 51% |
- The Coach: Availability favours Leeds: United miss Sesko and Ugarte with Shaw and Mainoo doubtful, while Leeds' only notable absentee is Rodon. Combined with United's midweek trip and off-field unrest, this expert nudges home up and away down.
- The Dressing Room: United's winless run, six absences, short rest and dressing-room turmoil justify shifting probability toward a rested, stable Leeds side, though totals stay near the model's level.
- The Sceptic: Starting from the market, a modest shade toward Leeds reflects United's absences, fatigue and unrest, tempered by Leeds' own defensive absences and United's uncertain lineup.
Verdict: Our final probabilities stay close to the market with a small lean to Leeds: United's absences, midweek Champions League turnaround and reported internal unrest point toward the home side, but Leeds' own defensive absences and United's attacking quality keep the adjustment modest.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Leeds United: last 6
LDWLDD · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Arsenal | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Crystal Palace | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Sep | vs Newcastle | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Sep | at Chelsea League Cup | 3–6 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Brighton | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Brentford | 1–1 | D |
Last 3 at home: DWD
Manchester United: last 6
LDDLLW · 8 scored, 8 conceded
| 13 Oct | at Atletico Madrid UEFA Champions League | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Tottenham | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Fulham | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Sep | vs Brighton League Cup | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Manchester City | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Sep | vs Sabah FA UEFA Champions League | 4–0 | W |
Last 4 away: LDDL
Season stats
| Leeds United | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 0.83 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 33% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 1.83 | Yellow cards per game | 1.67 |
League matches only, 6 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Leeds United | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | +5 | 11 | DLDWD |
| 7 | Newcastle | 8 | -2 | 11 | WLLWL |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 | WWDWL |
| 9 | Leeds United | 7 | +3 | 10 | DLDWD |
| 10 | Hull City | 8 | +1 | 10 | DLDLD |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLDWD |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | -4 | 10 | DLWLW |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | -1 | 9 | WWLLD |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | -2 | 9 | WWDLD |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | -2 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 16 | Manchester United | 8 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | -10 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | -4 | 6 | DLLLW |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | -9 | 6 | LLWWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Leeds United won 1, Manchester United 2, 3 draws; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026 | Manchester United | 1–1 | Leeds United | Friendlies Clubs |
| 13 Apr 2026 | Manchester United | 1–2 | Leeds United | Premier League |
| 4 Jan 2026 | Leeds United | 1–1 | Manchester United | Premier League |
| 19 Jul 2025 | Manchester United | 0–0 | Leeds United | Friendlies Clubs |
| 12 Jul 2023 | Manchester United | 2–0 | Leeds United | Friendlies Clubs |
| 12 Feb 2023 | Leeds United | 0–2 | Manchester United | Premier League |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1J. Trafford
Defenders
- 24J. Justin
- 30N. Elvedi
- 5T. Muharemović
Midfielders
- 2J. Bogle
- 4E. Ampadu
- 22A. Tanaka
- 3G. Gudmundsson
- 18A. Stach
- 19N. Okafor
Forward
- 9D. Calvert-Lewin
Substitutes (9)
- 10H. Wilson
- 11B. Aaronson
- 14L. Nmecha
- 23J. Bahoya
- 16M. Zetterer
- 26M. Bard
- 15J. Bijol
- 44I. Gruev
- 8S. Longstaff
Goalkeeper
- 1S. Lammens
Defenders
- 15L. Yoro
- 5H. Maguire
- 6Lisandro Martínez
- 2Diogo Dalot
Midfielders
- 17Andrey Santos
- 20C. Baleba
- 16A. Diallo
- 18Y. Tielemans
- 8Bruno Fernandes
Forward
- 19B. Mbeumo
Substitutes (9)
- 4M. de Ligt
- 3N. Mazraoui
- 41H. Amass
- 7M. Mount
- 31S. Lacey
- 10Matheus Cunha
- 9M. Rashford
- 12K. Darlow
- 11J. Zirkzee
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutD. JamesBack
- OutM. JosephKnee
- OutJ. RodonMuscle
- OutP. DorguHamstring
- OutT. HeatonAbdominal strain
- OutA. HeavenIllness
Show 4 more
- OutK. MainooInjury
- OutB. SeskoLeg
- OutL. ShawInjury
- OutM. UgarteKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Manchester United are 14th with 6 points from 6 games and have not won away in the league (W0 D2 L1).[1]
- United played a midweek European away fixture, giving them a short turnaround before this Sunday trip.[1][7]
- Leeds won the most recent league meeting between the sides 2-1 in April.[2]
- United have a lengthy absence list, including Benjamin Sesko, Manuel Ugarte and Patrick Dorgu, with Luke Shaw and Kobbie Mainoo doubtful.[1][2]
- Leeds' main absences are Joe Rodon and Mateo Joseph, with Dan James a doubt.[2]
Sources
- standard.co.uk – Man Utd XI vs Leeds: Predicted lineup, confirmed team news ...
- sportsmole.co.uk – Team News: Leeds United vs. Man United injury, suspension ...
- leedstimes.co.uk – Leeds United Team News vs Manchester United: Injury Updates ...
- manchestereveningnews.co.uk – Manchester United FC team news
Match context
- Stadium
- Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
- 40,204 seats · grass
- Travel for Manchester United
- 57 km
- Rest days
- Leeds United 8Manchester United 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Leeds United 1 · Manchester United 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 14 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Darren England
- 3.6 yellow cards per game and no penalties over 5 games — below the Premier League average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- D. Farke
- Leeds United, since Jul 2023
- Michael Carrick
- Manchester United, since Aug 2025
- Goals in this league
- Premier League average: 2.91 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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