Fulham vs Hull City prediction
Premier League · Matchday 7 · Craven Cottage, London
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
Fans · 0 votes
Fans’ picks appear after 5 votes. Voting closes at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.
In short
Bottom-of-the-table Fulham, winless after six league games, host a Hull City side sitting eighth with nine points. Hull arrive with nine players unavailable, including several defenders, while Fulham are close to full strength with Antonee Robinson back. Both defences have been leaking recently, which points to goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Fulham win or draw
- 83%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Hull City win or draw
- 40%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 57%
- 4+ goals
- 34%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 59%
- No
- 41%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Fulham and 1.6 from Hull City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–1 (8%), 1–0 (7%).
Lineups Expected
Goalkeeper
- Leno
Defenders
- Tete
- Affengruber
- Bassey
Midfielders
- Sessegnon
- Berge
- Charles
- Bobb
- King
- Iwobi
Forward
- Garcia
Goalkeeper
- Tzolakis
Defenders
- Coyle
- Ajayi
- Egan
- Herrington
- Giles
Midfielders
- Crooks
- Slater
Forwards
- Belloumi
- Thomas
- McBurnie
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
- DoubtT. CairneyKnee
- DoubtH. LarssonGroin
- OutI. AnsahBack
- OutJ. ButlandArm
- OutM. ChoMuscle
- OutL. Gourna-DouathCalf
- OutD. GyabiGroin
- OutC. HughesGroin
- OutE. MatazoKnee
- OutN. MendyGroin
- OutM. TargettAnkle
From our match data feed · updated UK time.
Key facts
- Fulham are 20th with two points from six league games and are still searching for their first league win of the season.[1][3][4]
- Hull City sit eighth with nine points from six games, their best top-flight start since 2008-09.[1][2][3]
- Hull have conceded exactly two goals in each of their last three league games after keeping three clean sheets in their first three.[1][3]
- Hull are without nine players, and 19-year-old Lucas Herrington is expected to deputise in the back three.[1][3]
- Antonee Robinson is available again for Fulham after missing the defeat at Ipswich with a knee problem.[3][4]
- Hull attacker Belloumi has three goals and two assists in six league games but was benched against Everton after reporting fatigue following international duty.[2][3]
- Fulham have won the last four meetings with Hull without conceding; the most recent was a 2-0 FA Cup win in January 2023.[3]
Still unclear
- Whether Hugo Larsson (groin) passes fitness
- Whether Antonee Robinson starts or Sessegnon keeps left-back spot
- Tom Cairney (knee) fitness being monitored
- Whether Belloumi starts after fatigue/international duty
Sources
- sportsmole.co.uk – Team News: Fulham vs. Hull City injury, suspension list ... (2026-10-17)
- fulhamfc.com – Matchday Preview: Hull City - Fulham FC (2026-10-17)
- thefootballfaithful.com – Fulham vs Hull City – Match preview and team news (2026-10-17)
- fulhamweb.co.uk – Fulham FC : Latest Fulham FC news, transfer stories and ... (2026-10-17)
- hulldailymail.co.uk – Hull City latest news - Hull Daily Mail - Hull Live (2026-10-17)
- hullcitynews.co.uk – Hull City News & Latest Updates - 2026 (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
- Fulham manager Alvaro Arbeloa is under pressure, with reports about his future circulating ahead of this match and the following game at Coventry.[3]
Match context
- Stadium
- Craven Cottage, London
- 29,589 seats · grass
- Travel for Hull City
- 249 km
- Rest days
- Fulham 7Hull City 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Fulham 1 · Hull City 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 17 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Chris Kavanagh
- 5.2 yellow cards and 0.00 penalties per game over 4 games — above the Premier League average (3.9 yellows).
- Coaches
- Alvaro Arbeloa
- Fulham, 3 months in charge
- S. Jakirović
- Hull City, 15 months in charge
- Goals in this league
- Premier League average: 2.95 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Fulham: last 6
LDWDLL · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Ipswich | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Manchester United | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | at West Ham League Cup | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Liverpool | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Crystal Palace | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | at Sunderland | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: DLWLW
Hull City: last 6
DLDLDW · 6 scored, 7 conceded
| 11 Oct | vs Everton | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Newcastle | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Chelsea | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Sep | at Sunderland League Cup | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Aston Villa | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | at Coventry | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LDLWD
Season stats
| Fulham | Hull City | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.30 |
| 1.70 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.70 | Scored per game at home | 1.30 |
| 0.30 | Scored per game away | 1.30 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 2.00 | Yellow cards per game | 3.17 |
League matches only, 6 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Fulham | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Fulham won 4, Hull City 1, 1 draw; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2023 | Hull City | 0–2 | Fulham | FA Cup |
| 12 Feb 2022 | Hull City | 0–1 | Fulham | Championship |
| 21 Aug 2021 | Fulham | 2–0 | Hull City | Championship |
| 11 Jan 2020 | Hull City | 0–1 | Fulham | Championship |
| 2 Nov 2019 | Fulham | 0–3 | Hull City | Championship |
| 30 Dec 2017 | Hull City | 2–2 | Fulham | Championship |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:08 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:31 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 59% | 23% | 18% | 55% |
| Goals model | 31% | 29% | 40% | 46% |
| AI experts | 44% | 27% | 29% | 51% |
| Our forecast | 60% | 23% | 17% | 57% |
- Squad & availability: Hull's nine absences, including three defenders and their keeper, force a teenage deputy into the back three, while Fulham are near full strength with Robinson returning. That shifts probability from away to home, and both leaky defences support a slightly higher over 2.5 lean.
- Form, tactics & morale: Hull's superior table position argues for them, but nine absences and an inexperienced back line trim the away lean, while Fulham's morale and managerial instability limit the home edge. Both defences conceding regularly supports over 2.5.
- Market sceptic: The market already prices Hull's absences and Fulham's crisis form, so we stay close to it, trimming Fulham slightly for the eight points dropped from winning positions and giving Hull a touch more for their solid underlying start.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because it already accounts for Hull's injury list and Fulham's poor form; we only nudge home slightly up given Hull's defensive absences and Fulham's returning players, and lean marginally above the market on over 2.5 given both sides' recent defensive records.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:08 | 60% | 23% | 17% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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