Everton vs Chelsea prediction

Everton 5th in Premier LeagueDWWDD

0–0

Sat 17 Oct · UK time

Live

Chelsea 6th in Premier LeagueWLDWL

Premier League · Matchday 7 · Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside

Who wins? (1X2)

32%28%40%

Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)

Voting closed at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.

In short

Everton and Chelsea sit level on 10 points in the top six. Everton are unbeaten in the league this season and strong at home, while Chelsea arrive with several defensive absences and a long run without a clean sheet. Our numbers stay close to the market, with a small tilt toward the home side.

More markets

Win or draw (double chance)

Everton win or draw: 60%
Either team wins (no draw): 72%
Chelsea win or draw: 68%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 78%
3+ goals: 55%
4+ goals: 32%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 57%
No: 43%

We expect about 1.7 goals from Everton and 1.2 from Chelsea. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 1–2 (7%).

Lineups Confirmed

Everton4-2-3-1

Goalkeeper

1J. Pickford

Defenders

2A. Maitland-Niles
6J. Tarkowski
4J. Branthwaite
16V. Mykolenko

Midfielders

37J. Garner
45H. Armstrong
34M. Röhl
8K. Dewsbury-Hall
10J. Grealish

Forward

11T. Barry

Substitutes (9)

12M. Travers
15J. O'Brien
20T. Dibling
24C. Alcaraz
23C. Nørgaard
30H. Hackney
58B. Graham
19Tyrique George
22B. Johnson

Chelsea4-2-3-1

Goalkeeper

1E. Martínez

Defenders

34Joshua Kofi Acheampong
5M. Lacroix
6L. Colwill

Midfielders

25M. Caicedo
14J. Henderson
7Pedro Neto
21J. Hato
10C. Palmer
17M. Rogers

Forward

9João Pedro

Substitutes (9)

39M. Penders
18D. Welbeck
4V. Barco
45R. Lavia
32M. Nicoll-Jazuli
23Geovany Tcherno Quenda
41Estêvão
2M. Palestra
3W. Fofana

Official team sheets, updated 12:36 UK time.

Injuries and suspensions

Everton

DoubtV. MykolenkoKnock

Chelsea

OutJ. GittensAnkle
OutR. JamesKnee
DoubtE. EmeghaMuscle

From our match data feed · updated 09:10 UK time.

Key facts

Everton are fifth with 10 points from 6 games and unbeaten in the league (home W2 D1 L0, away W0 D3 L0).[2][7]
Chelsea are sixth, also on 10 points, with an away record of W1 D0 L2 this season.[1][2]
Everton drew 2-2 at Hull City last time out after letting a lead slip, having kept three consecutive clean sheets before that.[2][5]
Chelsea have gone 22 top-flight matches without a clean sheet.[2]
Chelsea have lost six of their last nine league visits to Everton.[2]
Everton won 3-0 at home against Chelsea last season.[5]
Everton's defensive trio of Tarkowski, Branthwaite and Mykolenko all face late fitness questions.[4][5][6]

Still unclear

Whether Branthwaite, Mykolenko and Tarkowski pass late fitness tests
Chelsea midfield pivot: Barco/Lavia vs sticking with Henderson
Right-back/wing-back choice: Fofana vs Acheampong; Palestra vs Pedro Neto
Extent of Chelsea rotation after 5-1 win and midweek fixture per

Sources

standard.co.uk – Chelsea FC XI vs Everton: Confirmed team news, predicted ... (2026-10-17)
sportsmole.co.uk – Team News: Everton vs. Chelsea injury, suspension list ... (2026-10-17)
bbc.com – Everton vs Chelsea: Confirmed team news - BBC Sport (2026-10-17)
football.london – 5 players to miss Everton vs Chelsea after Xabi Alonso drops ... (2026-10-17)
liverpoolecho.co.uk – David Moyes press conference - Vitalii Mykolenko injury and ... (2026-10-17)
goodisonnews.com – Everton vs Chelsea injury and suspension latest as Tarkowski ... (2026-10-17)
evertonfcnews.co.uk – Everton News & Latest Updates - 2026 (2026-10-17)
chelsea-fc.com – Chelsea FC News - CSR (2026-10-17)
chelsea.news – Latest Chelsea News - Chelsea News (2026-10-17)

Off the pitch

Everton's owners have confirmed the club is up for sale or seeking new investment, following supporter unrest over transfer strategy.[7]
Moyes says Everton are 'in a good place', though talks over his own future remain open.[5]
Travel disruption around the stadium is expected, with fans urged to arrive early.[5]

Match context

Stadium: Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside; 52,888 seats · grass
Travel for Chelsea: 286 km
Rest days: Everton 5Chelsea 6; Matches in the last 14 days: Everton 1 · Chelsea 1
Weather at kick-off: 10°C · wind 9 km/h; Dry
Referee: Paul Tierney; 3.0 yellow cards and 0.00 penalties per game over 5 games — below the Premier League average (3.9 yellows).
Coaches: D. Moyes; Everton, 21 months in charge; Xabi Alonso; Chelsea, 3 months in charge
Goals in this league: Premier League average: 2.95 per match

Form

All competitions, newest first.

Everton: last 6

DWWDDD · 7 scored, 5 conceded

11 Oct	at Hull City	2–2	D
19 Sep	vs Ipswich	1–0	W
16 Sep	vs Wolves League Cup	1–0	W
12 Sep	at Tottenham	0–0	D
6 Sep	vs Manchester United	2–2	D
29 Aug	at Bournemouth	1–1	D

Last 5 at home: WWDWD

Chelsea: last 6

WLDWLW · 18 scored, 14 conceded

10 Oct	vs Bournemouth	5–1	W
18 Sep	at Brentford	0–3	L
12 Sep	vs Hull City	2–2	D
9 Sep	vs Leeds League Cup	6–3	W
6 Sep	at Arsenal	1–2	L
30 Aug	vs Brighton	4–3	W

Last 4 away: LLWD

Season stats

Everton		Chelsea
1.30	Goals scored per game	2.50
0.80	Goals conceded per game	2.20
1.70	Scored per game at home	3.70
1.00	Scored per game away	1.30
33%	Matches over 2.5 goals	100%
50%	Both teams scored	83%
50%	Clean sheets	0%
17%	Failed to score	17%
1.50	Yellow cards per game	1.50

League matches only, 6 games each.

When goals come

Goals scored this season by 15-minute period.
Minutes	Everton	Chelsea
0–15 min	1	7
16–30 min	0	0
31–45 min	1	2
46–60 min	2	2
61–75 min	1	5
76–90 min	3	0

Premier League table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	Form
2	Arsenal	6	+5	15	WLWWW
3	Brighton	6	+13	13	WWWDL
4	Brentford	6	+6	10	DWDDD
5	Everton	6	+3	10	DWDDD
6	Chelsea	6	+2	10	WLDLW
7	Leeds	6	+3	9	LDWDD
8	Hull City	6	+2	9	DLDDW
9	Liverpool	6	+0	9	LWDWD

Full Premier League table · Predicted final table

Head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Everton won 2, Chelsea 3, 1 draw; 2.3 goals per game.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
21 Mar 2026	Everton	3–0	Chelsea	Premier League
13 Dec 2025	Chelsea	2–0	Everton	Premier League
26 Apr 2025	Chelsea	1–0	Everton	Premier League
22 Dec 2024	Everton	0–0	Chelsea	Premier League
15 Apr 2024	Chelsea	6–0	Everton	Premier League
10 Dec 2023	Everton	2–0	Chelsea	Premier League

Published 17 Oct 2026, 06:56 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 10:34 UTC

How we got to these numbers

Home = Everton win, Away = Chelsea win.
	Home	Draw	Away	3+ goals
Bookmakers	33%	27%	40%	56%
Goals model	50%	24%	27%	65%
AI experts	43%	26%	31%	60%
Our forecast	32%	28%	40%	55%

Squad & availability: Everton's first-choice back line looks set to return, while Chelsea field a reshaped defence missing James and Chalobah; that shifts a little probability from away to home, with Chelsea's attacking quality keeping their win chance near baseline.
Form, tactics & morale: Everton's unbeaten league start and Chelsea's poor record at Everton and 22-game clean-sheet drought offset Chelsea's attacking firepower, keeping the home side near the model baseline and totals above the league average.
Market sceptic: The market already prices both sides' similar league positions, but Chelsea's defensive absences and their weak record at Everton justify a modest tilt toward the home side, kept small given heavy source contradictions.

Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because both teams are level on points and Chelsea's attacking talent offsets their defensive absences. A small shift from away to home reflects Chelsea's 22-game clean-sheet drought and their poor recent record at Everton.

Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published (UK time)	Home	Draw	Away	Reason
1	17 Oct 07:56	31%	26%	43%	First analysis
2	17 Oct 11:34	32%	28%	40%	Official lineups

Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger.

This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →

18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling