AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Bournemouth to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 52% · ✓ 2 goals
In short
Two bottom-three sides meet at Vitality Stadium, both without a Premier League win this season and both coming off Thursday Europa League fixtures. Our probabilities stay close to the market, with a slight home lean.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- AFC Bournemouth win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Sunderland win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.5 goals from AFC Bournemouth and 1.1 from Sunderland. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–0 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 44% | 29% | 27% | 48% |
| Goals model | 46% | 25% | 29% | 60% |
| AI analysts | 46% | 26% | 28% | 58% |
| Our forecast | 45% | 28% | 27% | 47% |
- The Dressing Room: Fatigue is symmetric since both played Thursday, but Sunderland's leaking defence and Bournemouth's scoring record in all six league head-to-heads point to a higher-scoring match than the table positions suggest.
- The Sceptic: The market aligns closely with the model, so we stay near it with a small home lean, while the over looks undervalued given both defences are conceding heavily.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because both teams share poor league form, equal rest after Thursday fixtures and similar table positions; the slight home lean reflects Sunderland's greater attacking and defensive absences, and we keep the over marginally below the market's implied lean given both sides' low confidence.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
AFC Bournemouth: last 6
WLLWDW · 12 scored, 9 conceded
| 15 Oct | vs Sturm Graz UEFA Europa League | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Chelsea | 1–5 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Liverpool | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Sep | at Real Sociedad UEFA Europa League | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Brentford | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Sep | vs Lincoln League Cup | 4–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLDWD
Sunderland: last 6
WLLWLW · 7 scored, 10 conceded
| 15 Oct | at Torreense UEFA Europa League | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Brighton | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Manchester City | 3–5 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs AZ Alkmaar UEFA Europa League | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Arsenal | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Hull City League Cup | 1–0 | W |
Last 4 away: WLDL
Season stats
| AFC Bournemouth | Sunderland | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.17 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 2.17 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.33 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 1.67 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 83% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 3.00 | Yellow cards per game | 2.00 |
League matches only, 6 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | AFC Bournemouth | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hull City | 8 | +1 | 10 | DLDLD |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | -1 | 10 | LLDWD |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | -4 | 10 | DLWLW |
| 13 | AFC Bournemouth | 8 | -1 | 9 | WWLLD |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | -2 | 9 | WWDLD |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | -2 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 16 | Manchester United | 8 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | -10 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | -4 | 6 | DLLLW |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | -9 | 6 | LLWWL |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | -8 | 4 | LLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: AFC Bournemouth won 2, Sunderland 2, 2 draws; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | AFC Bournemouth | 1–1 | Sunderland | Premier League |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Sunderland | 3–2 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 29 Apr 2017 | Sunderland | 0–1 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 5 Nov 2016 | AFC Bournemouth | 1–2 | Sunderland | Premier League |
| 23 Jan 2016 | Sunderland | 1–1 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 19 Sep 2015 | AFC Bournemouth | 2–0 | Sunderland | Premier League |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1Đ. Petrović
Defenders
- 15A. Smith
- 5J. Hill
- 14António Silva
- 3A. Truffert
Midfielders
- 12T. Adams
- 10R. Christie
- 37Rayan
- 4L. Cook
- 16M. Tavernier
Forward
- 9Evanilson
Substitutes (9)
- 7D. Brooks
- 11B. Doak
- 21A. Adli
- 24Juanlu Sánchez
- 19J. Kluivert
- 18B. Diakité
- 6J. Soler
- 20M. Di Gregorio
- 30Á. Rodríguez
Goalkeeper
- 22R. Roefs
Defenders
- 20N. Mukiele
- 4K. Danso
- 15O. Alderete
- 17Reinildo
Midfielders
- 34G. Xhaka
- 27N. Sadiki
- 32T. Hume
- 11C. Rigg
- 28E. Le Fée
Forward
- 57Timur Tuterov
Substitutes (9)
- 19H. Diarra
- 29Jules Ahoka
- 39M. Fofana
- 10N. Angulo
- 7C. Talbi
- 6D. Methalie
- 13L. O'Nien
- 31M. Ellborg
- 50J. Angulo
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutJ. AraujoThigh
- OutE. J. KroupiFoot
- OutA. ScottThigh
- OutD. BallardMuscle
- OutW. IsidorInjury
- OutT. MeunierMuscle
Show 1 more
- OutR. MundleKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Bournemouth sit 19th with 3 points from 6 league games, without a win (three draws, three defeats).[2]
- Sunderland are 18th with 4 points from 6 games, one point above Bournemouth.[2]
- Bournemouth lost their last two league games, 0-1 at home to Liverpool and 1-5 at Chelsea.[2]
- Sunderland have lost three straight league games, conceding at least twice in each, including 0-2 at home to Brighton.[2]
- Bournemouth have scored in all six Premier League meetings with Sunderland (two wins, two draws, two defeats).[2]
- Sunderland took four points from the two league meetings with Bournemouth in 2025-26.[2]
- Both sides won their first two Europa League games, with Bournemouth beating Sturm Graz 3-0 and Sunderland winning 2-1 at Torreense on Thursday.[2]
- Amine Adli and Justin Kluivert returned from injury as substitutes against Sturm Graz and are available again.[2]
Sources
- mysportstab.com – Bournemouth vs Sunderland: Team News and Predicted Lineups
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Bournemouth vs Sunderland - prediction, team news ...
- bournemouthecho.co.uk – AFC Bournemouth predicted team for visit of Sunderland
Match context
- Stadium
- Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset
- 12,000 seats · grass
- Travel for Sunderland
- 466 km
- Rest days
- AFC Bournemouth 2Sunderland 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: AFC Bournemouth 2 · Sunderland 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 13°C · wind 17 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Craig Pawson
- 5.0 yellow cards per game and 0.25 penalties per game over 4 games — above the Premier League average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- Marco Rose
- AFC Bournemouth, since Aug 2026
- R. Le Bris
- Sunderland, since Jul 2024
- Goals in this league
- Premier League average: 2.91 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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