Newcastle United vs Aston Villa prediction
Premier League · Matchday 7 · St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
Fans · 0 votes
Fans’ picks appear after 5 votes. Voting closes at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.
In short
Newcastle host Aston Villa in the Premier League with both sides short of form in the league: Newcastle are 11th on 8 points after a 4-1 defeat at Coventry, Villa 16th on 5 points but buoyed by a 6-0 Champions League win over Fenerbahce on Wednesday. Both teams have several defenders unavailable, and Villa face a short turnaround. Our probabilities stay close to the market.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Newcastle United win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Aston Villa win or draw
- 59%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 63%
- 4+ goals
- 40%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Newcastle United and 1.3 from Aston Villa. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (8%), 2–0 (7%), 1–2 (7%).
Lineups Expected
Goalkeeper
- Hornicek
Defenders
- Dedic
- Thiaw
- Botman
- Hall
Midfielders
- Joelinton
- Gonzalez
- Willock
- Murphy
Forwards
- Osula
- Barnes
Goalkeeper
- Suzuki
Defenders
- Cash
- Lindelof
- Torres
- Wan-Bissaka
Midfielders
- Kamara
- Gomes
- McGinn
- Buendia
- Manzambi
Forward
- Jackson
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
- OutA. ElangaKnee
- OutE. JaouenMuscle
- OutV. LivramentoInjury
- OutJ. RamseyThigh
- OutI. MaatsenAnkle
- OutA. OnanaKnee
- OutM. RuggeriInjury
- DoubtM. CisseInjury
- DoubtG. HemmingsKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time.
Key facts
- Newcastle sit 11th with 8 points from 6 league games and are unbeaten at home this season (W1 D2 L0).[3]
- Aston Villa are 16th with 5 points and have won only one of six league matches this season.[3][4]
- Villa beat Fenerbahce 6-0 in the Champions League on Wednesday but had only around 72 hours of rest before this game.[1][4][8]
- Newcastle lost 4-1 at Coventry on 12 October and also lost 4-1 at Leeds in September, pointing to defensive problems.[1][3][7]
- Newcastle could set an unwanted club record of 16 consecutive home games without a clean sheet if they concede, having kept only 2 clean sheets in 20 home games in 2026.[3]
- Joelinton made his first minutes of the season against Coventry and may be ready to start, though it is uncertain whether he starts or comes off the bench.[2][3][5]
- Ross Barkley and George Hemmings face late fitness tests for Villa.[3][4]
- Neither side has any suspensions for this match.[5]
Still unclear
- Whether Joelinton starts vs comes off bench for Newcastle.
- Whether Bazoumana Toure and Dan Burn make Newcastle's matchday squad/start.
- Late fitness tests for Ross Barkley and George Hemmings for Villa.
- Whether Modou Keba Cisse makes Villa's squad.
Sources
- sportsmole.co.uk – Newcastle vs. Aston Villa injury, suspension list, predicted XIs (2026-10-17)
- chroniclelive.co.uk – 12 players who could miss Newcastle vs Aston Villa despite injuries ... (2026-10-17)
- skysports.com – Newcastle vs Aston Villa: How to watch, TV channel, live stream ... (2026-10-17)
- sports.yahoo.com – Official Aston Villa injury update ahead of Newcastle United game (2026-10-17)
- vitalfootball.co.uk – Newcastle United v Aston Villa: Team News « Vital Football (2026-10-17)
- newcastleunited.com – Newcastle United - Home (2026-10-17)
- theguardian.com – Newcastle United | The Guardian (2026-10-17)
- goal.com – Aston Villa - latest team news & transfer rumours | Goal.com UK (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
- Newcastle reportedly started planning in the summer for Eddie Howe's exit, a situation linked to board matters.[7]
- Alejandro Garnacho's loan at Villa has reportedly struggled to convince Emery, with exit speculation around the player.[8]
- Villa have opened contract talks with Emi Buendia, whose deal expires soon.[8]
Match context
- Stadium
- St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
- 52,758 seats · grass
- Travel for Aston Villa
- 277 km
- Rest days
- Newcastle United 4Aston Villa 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Newcastle United 1 · Aston Villa 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 12 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Jarred Gillett
- 3.8 yellow cards and 0.00 penalties per game over 4 games — close to the Premier League average (3.9 yellows).
- Coaches
- E. Howe
- Newcastle United, 5 years in charge
- Unai Emery
- Aston Villa, 4 years in charge
- Goals in this league
- Premier League average: 2.95 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Newcastle United: last 6
LWLWDW · 9 scored, 11 conceded
| 12 Oct | at Coventry | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Hull City | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | at Leeds | 1–4 | L |
| 8 Sep | at Millwall League Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Bournemouth | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | at Tottenham | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WDWDD
Aston Villa: last 6
WDWWWL · 18 scored, 8 conceded
| 14 Oct | vs Fenerbahçe UEFA Champions League | 6–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Brentford | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Oct | at Sevilla Friendlies Clubs | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Tottenham | 3–2 | W |
| 16 Sep | at Coventry League Cup | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Nottingham Forest | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WWWWD
Season stats
| Newcastle United | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.70 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded per game | 1.80 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.30 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 83% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 83% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 50% |
| 2.17 | Yellow cards per game | 2.00 |
League matches only, 6 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Newcastle United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | +2 | 9 | DLDDW |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | +0 | 9 | LWDWD |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | -3 | 9 | WLWLL |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 6 | -3 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | -3 | 7 | WDLWL |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | +0 | 6 | DDLDW |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | -6 | 6 | WWLLL |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | -3 | 5 | LLWDD |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | -5 | 5 | DWLDL |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | -6 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | -6 | 3 | LLDDD |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | -6 | 3 | DLDDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Newcastle United won 3, Aston Villa 2, 1 draw; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Aston Villa | 1–3 | Newcastle United | FA Cup |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Newcastle United | 0–2 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Aston Villa | 0–0 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 19 Apr 2025 | Aston Villa | 4–1 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 26 Dec 2024 | Newcastle United | 3–0 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 30 Jan 2024 | Aston Villa | 1–3 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 11:22 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 11:23 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 4+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 41% | 26% | 33% | 40% |
| Goals model | 51% | 23% | 26% | 43% |
| AI experts | 46% | 24% | 30% | 44% |
| Our forecast | 41% | 26% | 33% | 40% |
- Squad & availability: Availability damage is roughly balanced between the sides, but Joelinton possibly only making the bench and Newcastle's leaky defence temper the home edge, while Villa's 72-hour turnaround after the Champions League game keeps the away win in check.
- Form, tactics & morale: Newcastle's poor form and home clean-sheet drought shade the home win down, while Villa's attacking momentum is offset by fatigue and a thin backline, supporting a high-scoring match.
- Market sceptic: The market already prices Newcastle's defensive frailty, so only a small nudge toward the home side is justified by Villa's short turnaround and heavy midweek exertion.
Verdict: Our final probabilities match the market because the main factors - Newcastle's defensive problems and home clean-sheet drought versus Villa's strong away results but short turnaround after the Fenerbahce match - are already reflected in the prices, and rotation uncertainty on both sides limits any further adjustment.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 12:22 | 41% | 26% | 33% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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