Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Brighton & Hove to win: 65%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 60% · bookies 62% · ✓ 5 goals
In short
Brighton host Crystal Palace in the M23 derby third in the table with 13 points from six games, while Palace sit 13th on seven. Brighton are on a strong run but carry several attacking absences; Palace are without Disasi through suspension and have doubts over Henderson and Mateta. Our probabilities stay close to the market, with a slight edge to the home side.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Brighton & Hove Albion win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- Crystal Palace win or draw
- 35%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 37%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 2.2 goals from Brighton & Hove Albion and 0.9 from Crystal Palace. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 3–0 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 66% | 20% | 14% | 62% |
| Goals model | 76% | 14% | 10% | 76% |
| AI analysts | 71% | 17% | 13% | 70% |
| Our forecast | 65% | 20% | 15% | 60% |
- The Coach: Availability strongly favours Brighton: Palace lack Disasi and Riad at the back and have doubts over Henderson and Mateta, while Brighton's absences mainly dent depth. The lineups expert lands at 72/16/12 with over 2.5 at 70%.
- The Dressing Room: Brighton's form and home scoring streak support the model, but Mitoma, Ferguson and Azeez are out and Huerzeler is winless in four against Palace, so home is trimmed to 72%. Palace's weakened attack and league-worst shots-faced figure keep over 2.5 high.
- The Sceptic: From a 66/20/14 market, Palace's defensive crisis and away scoring drought justify a modest nudge toward Brighton and a higher over 2.5, but Palace's recent head-to-head edge caps the move.
Verdict: Our final probabilities (65/20/15, over 2.5 at 60%) stay close to the market because Brighton's own attacking absences and Palace's strong recent head-to-head record offset the home side's form and Palace's defensive problems; only a small edge to Brighton is justified.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Brighton & Hove Albion: last 6
WWWWWD · 18 scored, 3 conceded
| 15 Oct | vs Kauno Žalgiris UEFA Europa Conference League | 4–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Sunderland | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Arsenal | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | at Manchester United League Cup | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Coventry | 5–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Leeds | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWDWW
Crystal Palace: last 6
LWDWLW · 14 scored, 7 conceded
| 15 Oct | at Lyon UEFA Europa League | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Nottingham Forest | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Leeds | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Sep | vs Lech Poznan UEFA Europa League | 4–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Ipswich | 2–3 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Middlesbrough League Cup | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LDWLD
Season stats
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Crystal Palace | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 0.83 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 2.67 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 3.33 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 33% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 67% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 2.17 | Yellow cards per game | 1.33 |
League matches only, 6 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Brighton & Hove Albion | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | +11 | 21 | LWWWW |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | +8 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 8 | +16 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | +3 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 | LWWLD |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | +5 | 11 | DLDWD |
| … | |||||
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | -2 | 9 | WWDLD |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | -2 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 16 | Manchester United | 8 | -3 | 7 | LDDDL |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | -10 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | -4 | 6 | DLLLW |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | -9 | 6 | LLWWL |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | -8 | 4 | LLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Brighton & Hove Albion won 1, Crystal Palace 3, 2 draws; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0–1 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Crystal Palace | 0–0 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Crystal Palace | 2–1 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League |
| 15 Dec 2024 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1–3 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 3 Feb 2024 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 4–1 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 21 Dec 2023 | Crystal Palace | 1–1 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1B. Verbruggen
Defenders
- 24F. Kadıoğlu
- 44L. Vušković
- 5L. Dunk
- 21O. Boscagli
Midfielders
- 13P. Groß
- 14José María Andrés Baixauli
- 25D. Gómez
- 26Y. Ayari
- 29M. De Cuyper
Forward
- 19C. Kostoulas
Substitutes (9)
- 35M. Yalcouyé
- 33M. O'Riley
- 15I. Osman
- 10G. Rutter
- 8J. Hinshelwood
- 30M. Svoboda
- 20Costinha
- 3J. Hadjam
- 23J. Steele
Goalkeeper
- 44W. Benítez
Defenders
- 6J. Canvot
- 26C. Richards
- 21H. Ahanor
Midfielders
- 25A. Khalaili
- 20A. Wharton
- 23Q. Timber
- 3T. Mitchell
- 18D. Kamada
- 10Yeremy Pino
Forward
- 22J. Strand Larsen
Substitutes (9)
- 9E. Nketiah
- 7I. Sarr
- 14J. Mateta
- 24D. Osorio
- 11D. McNeil
- 19W. Hughes
- 8J. Lerma
- 30Óscar Mingueza
- 31R. Matthews
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutF. AzeezAbdominal strain
- OutE. FergusonAnkle
- OutY. MintehInjury
Show 5 more
- OutK. MitomaHamstring
- OutP. StruijkRest
- OutS. TzimasKnee
- OutM. WiefferKnee
- OutZ. YohannaInjury
- Susp.A. DisasiSuspended
- OutB. ChilwellInjury
- OutD. HendersonFoot
Show 2 more
- OutC. RiadKnee
- OutT. TomiyasuCalf
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Brighton are 3rd with 13 points from six league games and unbeaten at home this season (W2 D1 L0).[2][3]
- Crystal Palace are 13th with 7 points from six games and have won one, drawn one and lost one away.[2][3]
- Brighton won 4-0 against Kauno Zalgiris in the Conference League on 15 October, while Palace lost 3-2 at Lyon in the Europa League the same evening.[2][3]
- Brighton have ten different Premier League scorers this season, the most of any side, and Gross has seven goal involvements in his last five league games.[2]
- Palace have failed to score in four of their last six away league matches and have faced 108 Premier League shots this season, the most of any side.[2]
- Brighton are looking to win four consecutive Premier League games.[2]
- Palace are seeking back-to-back league wins after beating Nottingham Forest 3-1, but their defensive numbers have been flagged as a major concern.[3]
Sources
- sportsmole.co.uk – Team News: Brighton vs. Crystal Palace injury, suspension ...
- brightonandhovealbion.com – Palace team news: Update on Minteh, Mitoma, Struijk and Wieffer
- sports.yahoo.com – PREVIEW | Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace: team news ...
- newsnow.co.uk – Brighton v Crystal Palace News | Live Feed - NewsNow
Match context
- Stadium
- American Express Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
- 31,872 seats · grass
- Travel for Crystal Palace
- 71 km
- Rest days
- Brighton & Hove Albion 2Crystal Palace 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Brighton & Hove Albion 2 · Crystal Palace 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 18 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Robert Jones
- 2.7 yellow cards per game and 0.17 penalties per game over 6 games — below the Premier League average (4.0 yellows).
- Coaches
- F. Hürzeler
- Brighton & Hove Albion, since Jun 2024
- P. Sage
- Crystal Palace, since Jul 2026
- Goals in this league
- Premier League average: 2.91 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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