Brentford vs Liverpool prediction

Brentford 4th in Premier LeagueDWWDD

15:00

Sat 17 Oct · UK time

Not started

Liverpool 9th in Premier LeagueWLWWD

Premier League · Matchday 7 · Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

Who wins? (1X2)

37%27%36%

Bookmakers agree to within two points on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)

Fans’ picks appear after 5 votes. Voting closes at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.

In short

Brentford are unbeaten and fourth, but face late fitness tests on Schade, Schuster, Damsgaard and Collins. Liverpool miss the suspended Gravenberch and likely Ekitike, with Szoboszlai, Isak and Gakpo doubtful, and will rotate after a midweek Champions League trip. Both teams' absences push goals expectations up slightly.

More markets

Win or draw (double chance)

Brentford win or draw: 64%
Either team wins (no draw): 73%
Liverpool win or draw: 63%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 83%
3+ goals: 62%
4+ goals: 40%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 60%
No: 40%

We expect about 2.0 goals from Brentford and 1.2 from Liverpool. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (10%), 2–0 (8%), 1–0 (8%), 3–1 (7%).

Lineups Expected

Brentford

Goalkeeper

Kelleher

Defenders

Kayode
Van den Berg
Ajer

Midfielders

Lewis-Potter
Yarmolyuk
Janelt
Jensen

Forwards

Anthony
Ouattara
Thiago

Liverpool

Defenders

Araujo
Jacquet
Van Dijk
Kerkez

Midfielders

Mac Allister
Nyoni
Wirtz

Forwards

Munoz
Barcola
Koumas

Others

Alisson

Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Brentford

OutK. FuroSurgery
DoubtN. CollinsCalf
DoubtM. DamsgaardAnkle
DoubtJ. DasilvaMuscle
DoubtA. MilamboKnock
DoubtK. SchadeInjury
DoubtJ. SchusterAnkle

Liverpool

OutC. BradleyKnee
OutH. EkitikeAchilles Tendon
SuspendedR. GravenberchSuspended
OutG. LeoniKnee
DoubtC. GakpoAnkle
DoubtA. IsakThigh
DoubtD. SzoboszlaiHamstring

From our match data feed · updated 09:10 UK time.

Key facts

Up to 14 players across both squads could miss the match.[1][3]
Liverpool won 6-3 at LASK in the Champions League on Wednesday but lost their previous league game 3-0 at home to Manchester City.[2]
Brentford are unbeaten in the league and sit fourth after drawing 2-2 at Aston Villa last weekend.[1][2][5]
Liverpool's game comes under 72 hours after the midweek trip, with a Champions League visit to Villarreal next Tuesday prompting further rotation.[5]
Ryan Gravenberch is suspended and Szoboszlai, Isak and Gakpo are all doubtful after international duty.[2][3][5]
Schade, Schuster, Damsgaard and Collins all face late fitness tests for Brentford.[3][4]
Van Dijk and Mac Allister were rested in midweek and are expected to return.[2]
Brentford's head coach says the squad is in a really good place despite the injury list.[3][4]

Still unclear

Whether Szoboszlai, Isak or Gakpo pass fitness tests and feature
Whether Brentford's Schade, Schuster, Damsgaard and Collins come through late fitness tests
Extent of Iraola's rotation given the three-game week

Sources

sportsmole.co.uk – Team News: Brentford vs. Liverpool injury, suspension list ... (2026-10-17)
standard.co.uk – Liverpool XI vs Brentford: Predicted lineup, confirmed team ... (2026-10-17)
liverpoolecho.co.uk – 14 players to miss Brentford vs Liverpool as late fitness ... (2026-10-17)
brentfordfc.com – Brentford v Liverpool team news: Schade and Schuster injury ... (2026-10-17)
liverpoolfc.com – Brentford v Liverpool: Team news (2026-10-17)
pre-prod.brentfordfc.com – Brentford FC | Official Website, News, Fixtures & Tickets (2026-10-17)
liverpool.com – Brentford FC - latest news, interviews, pictures - Liverpool.com (2026-10-17)

Off the pitch

External pressure narrative has built around Liverpool's manager after the defeat to Manchester City.[2][7]
Florian Wirtz faces outside criticism of his form but keeps the manager's backing as the number ten.[2]

Match context

Stadium: Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex; 17,250 seats · grass
Travel for Liverpool: 280 km
Rest days: Brentford 7Liverpool 2; Matches in the last 14 days: Brentford 1 · Liverpool 2
Weather at kick-off: 14°C · wind 19 km/h; Dry
Referee: John Brooks; 5.2 yellow cards and 0.75 penalties per game over 4 games — above the Premier League average (3.9 yellows).
Coaches: Keith Andrews; Brentford, 15 months in charge; A. Slot; Liverpool, 2 years in charge
Goals in this league: Premier League average: 2.95 per match

Form

All competitions, newest first.

Brentford: last 6

DWWDDD · 11 scored, 7 conceded

10 Oct	at Aston Villa	2–2	D
18 Sep	vs Chelsea	3–0	W
15 Sep	at Reading League Cup	2–1	W
12 Sep	at Bournemouth	2–2	D
5 Sep	vs Sunderland	1–1	D
30 Aug	at Leeds	1–1	D

Last 4 at home: WDWW

Liverpool: last 6

WLWWDW · 12 scored, 8 conceded

14 Oct	at Lask Linz UEFA Champions League	6–3	W
11 Oct	vs Manchester City	0–3	L
20 Sep	at Bournemouth	1–0	W
15 Sep	vs Tottenham League Cup	3–1	W
12 Sep	vs Fulham	0–0	D
9 Sep	vs Atletico Madrid UEFA Champions League	2–1	W

Last 4 away: WWWD

Season stats

Brentford		Liverpool
2.00	Goals scored per game	1.20
1.00	Goals conceded per game	1.20
2.30	Scored per game at home	0.70
1.70	Scored per game away	1.70
67%	Matches over 2.5 goals	50%
67%	Both teams scored	33%
33%	Clean sheets	50%
0%	Failed to score	33%
2.67	Yellow cards per game	2.67

League matches only, 6 games each.

When goals come

Goals scored this season by 15-minute period.
Minutes	Brentford	Liverpool
0–15 min	2	2
16–30 min	0	0
31–45 min	3	0
46–60 min	3	3
61–75 min	1	0
76–90 min	3	2

Premier League table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	Form
1	Manchester City	6	+11	18	WWWWW
2	Arsenal	6	+5	15	WLWWW
3	Brighton	6	+13	13	WWWDL
4	Brentford	6	+6	10	DWDDD
5	Everton	6	+3	10	DWDDD
6	Chelsea	6	+2	10	WLDLW
7	Leeds	6	+3	9	LDWDD
8	Hull City	6	+2	9	DLDDW
9	Liverpool	6	+0	9	LWDWD
10	Ipswich	6	-3	9	WLWLL
11	Newcastle	6	-3	8	LWLDW
12	Crystal Palace	6	-3	7	WDLWL

Full Premier League table · Predicted final table

Head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Brentford won 1, Liverpool 4, 1 draw; 3.2 goals per game.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
24 May 2026	Liverpool	1–1	Brentford	Premier League
25 Oct 2025	Brentford	3–2	Liverpool	Premier League
18 Jan 2025	Brentford	0–2	Liverpool	Premier League
25 Aug 2024	Liverpool	2–0	Brentford	Premier League
17 Feb 2024	Brentford	1–4	Liverpool	Premier League
12 Nov 2023	Liverpool	3–0	Brentford	Premier League

Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:08 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 08:08 UTC

How we got to these numbers

Home = Brentford win, Away = Liverpool win.
	Home	Draw	Away	3+ goals
Bookmakers	39%	26%	35%	60%
Goals model	54%	25%	20%	51%
AI experts	44%	27%	28%	56%
Our forecast	37%	27%	36%	62%

Squad & availability: Brentford have several latefitness tests but Liverpool's absences are more severe, with Gravenberch suspended and three attacking doubts, forcing a rotated XI with academy players after a midweek trip. That shifts probability toward the home side, though Liverpool's depth and returning core keep the away win meaningful.
Form, tactics & morale: Liverpool rotate heavily under 72-hour congestion and likely miss their first-choice front line, while unbeaten Brentford are near full-strength up front if Schade passes his test.
Market sceptic: The market has largely priced the rotation and rest asymmetry, so only a modest further shift to Brentford is justified; over 2.5 stays slightly above the market given both defences' doubts.

Verdict: Our figures stay close to the market because most of Liverpool's rotation and absence risk is already priced in; we only nudge the home side slightly, keeping Brentford's own fitness doubts and Liverpool's returning core in mind. Over 2.5 sits slightly above the market given both teams' defensive uncertainty.

Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published (UK time)	Home	Draw	Away	Reason
1	17 Oct 09:08	37%	27%	36%	First analysis

This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.

This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →

18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling