Shooting Stars vs Abia Warriors prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Shooting Stars to win: 58%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 56%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
In short
Shooting Stars are favourites at 58%, with Abia Warriors on 18% and the draw on 24%. Shooting Stars are 15th and Abia Warriors 17th in the NPFL. In their last five league games, Shooting Stars won one and Abia Warriors one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Shooting Stars win or draw
- 83%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Abia Warriors win or draw
- 42%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 44%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 44%
- No
- 56%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Shooting Stars and 0.8 from Abia Warriors. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (15%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% | 24% | 17% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1784 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Shooting Stars: last 6
DWLDDL · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Ikorodu City | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Oct | vs Ranchers Bees | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Kun Khalifat FC | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Oct | vs Kano Pillars | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Oct | vs Nasarawa United | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Sep | at Enyimba | 2–4 | L |
Last 5 at home: WDDWW
Abia Warriors: last 6
LDDLWL · 5 scored, 7 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Niger Tornadoes | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Kwara United | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Rivers United | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Oct | at Enugu Rangers | 1–3 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Bendel Insurance | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Sep | at Barau FC | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: DLLWL
Season stats
| Shooting Stars | Abia Warriors | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored per game | 0.90 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded per game | 1.30 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.80 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 30% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
NPFL table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Katsina United | 10 | -2 | 13 | DLWDD |
| 13 | Kwara United | 10 | +0 | 12 | DDLWL |
| 14 | Warri Wolves | 10 | -1 | 12 | DDWLL |
| 15 | Shooting Stars | 10 | -2 | 12 | DWLDD |
| 16 | Kun Khalifat FC | 10 | -6 | 12 | WDWLW |
| 17 | Abia Warriors | 10 | -4 | 10 | LDDLW |
| 18 | Ranchers Bees | 9 | -3 | 8 | LDLDL |
| 19 | Enyimba | 10 | -4 | 8 | LDLWW |
| 20 | Inter Lagos | 10 | -11 | 2 −3 | LLLDL |
Match context
- Travel for Abia Warriors
- 446 km
- Rest days
- Shooting Stars 7Abia Warriors 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Shooting Stars 1 · Abia Warriors 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 31°C · wind 4 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- NPFL average: 2.35 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
