Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Kwara to win: 59%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 55%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
In short
Kwara United are favourites at 59%, with Bendel Insurance on 19% and the draw on 22%. Kwara United are 13th and Bendel Insurance 6th in the NPFL. In their last five league games, Kwara United won one and Bendel Insurance three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Kwara United win or draw
- 81%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Bendel Insurance win or draw
- 41%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Kwara United and 1.0 from Bendel Insurance. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–1 (10%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 3–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% | 22% | 19% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1778 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Kwara United: last 6
DDLWLW · 6 scored, 7 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Barau FC | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Abia Warriors | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Ikorodu City | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Ranchers Bees | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Kun Khalifat FC | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Sep | vs Nasarawa United | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWWD
Bendel Insurance: last 6
WLWLWL · 10 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Rivers United | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Sporting Lagos | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Barau FC | 4–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Abia Warriors | 0–3 | L |
| 23 Sep | vs Ikorodu City | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Ranchers Bees | 1–2 | L |
Last 4 away: LLLL
Season stats
| Kwara United | Bendel Insurance | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.10 | Goals scored per game | 1.78 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded per game | 1.56 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.80 |
| 0.20 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 40% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 89% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 78% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 22% |
League matches only, 10 and 9 games.
NPFL table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nasarawa United | 10 | +3 | 17 | WWWDW |
| 4 | Plateau United | 10 | +4 | 15 | DLWLW |
| 5 | Barau FC | 10 | +3 | 15 | DDDLD |
| 6 | Bendel Insurance | 9 | +2 | 15 | WLWLW |
| 7 | Sporting Lagos | 9 | +2 | 15 | WWDDD |
| 8 | Kano Pillars | 10 | +1 | 15 | DWLDD |
| 9 | Niger Tornadoes | 10 | +1 | 15 | WWDWL |
| 10 | Doma United | 9 | +0 | 14 | DLWLD |
| 11 | Ikorodu City | 10 | +2 | 13 | DLWLD |
| 12 | Katsina United | 10 | -2 | 13 | DLWDD |
| 13 | Kwara United | 10 | +0 | 12 | DDLWL |
| 14 | Warri Wolves | 10 | -1 | 12 | DDWLL |
| 15 | Shooting Stars | 10 | -2 | 12 | DWLDD |
| 16 | Kun Khalifat FC | 10 | -6 | 12 | WDWLW |
Match context
- Travel for Bendel Insurance
- 268 km
- Rest days
- Kwara United 7Bendel Insurance 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Kwara United 1 · Bendel Insurance 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 33°C · wind 3 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- NPFL average: 2.35 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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