Katsina United vs Sporting Lagos prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Katsina to win: 54%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 52%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
In short
Katsina United are favourites at 54%, with Sporting Lagos on 22% and the draw on 24%. Katsina United are 12th and Sporting Lagos 7th in the NPFL. In their last five league games, Katsina United won one and Sporting Lagos two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Katsina United win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Sporting Lagos win or draw
- 46%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 48%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Katsina United and 1.0 from Sporting Lagos. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% | 24% | 22% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2051 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Katsina United: last 6
DLWDDW · 10 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Plateau United | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Kano Pillars | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Enyimba | 4–2 | W |
| 4 Oct | at Inter Lagos | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Sep | vs Rivers United | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Doma United | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWDWW
Sporting Lagos: last 6
WWDDDW · 10 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Plateau United | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Bendel Insurance | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Kano Pillars | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Sep | vs Ikorodu City | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Barau FC | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Sep | at Enyimba | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 away: WDWWL
Season stats
| Katsina United | Sporting Lagos | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored per game | 1.44 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded per game | 1.22 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 0.40 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 40% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 56% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 10 and 9 games.
NPFL table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Plateau United | 10 | +4 | 15 | DLWLW |
| 5 | Barau FC | 10 | +3 | 15 | DDDLD |
| 6 | Bendel Insurance | 9 | +2 | 15 | WLWLW |
| 7 | Sporting Lagos | 9 | +2 | 15 | WWDDD |
| 8 | Kano Pillars | 10 | +1 | 15 | DWLDD |
| 9 | Niger Tornadoes | 10 | +1 | 15 | WWDWL |
| 10 | Doma United | 9 | +0 | 14 | DLWLD |
| 11 | Ikorodu City | 10 | +2 | 13 | DLWLD |
| 12 | Katsina United | 10 | -2 | 13 | DLWDD |
| 13 | Kwara United | 10 | +0 | 12 | DDLWL |
| 14 | Warri Wolves | 10 | -1 | 12 | DDWLL |
| 15 | Shooting Stars | 10 | -2 | 12 | DWLDD |
Match context
- Travel for Sporting Lagos
- 860 km
- Rest days
- Katsina United 8Sporting Lagos 14
- Matches in the last 14 days: Katsina United 1 · Sporting Lagos 0
- Weather at kick-off
- 36°C · wind 10 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- NPFL average: 2.35 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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